我国耕地非农化研究进展及展望

RESEARCH PROGRESS AND PROSPECT OF NON AGRICULTURALIZATION OF ARABLE LAND IN CHINA

关键词:  耕地非农化研究进展风险评估展望

Key words:  arable land  non agriculturalization  research progress  risk assessment  prospect

摘要:

［目的］通过梳理我国耕地非农化的研究进展，研判现有研究成效及不足，并结合新时代耕地非农化的诉求，厘定未来研究导向和重点，为增强耕地非农化成果精准性提供参考和借鉴。［方法］该文采用文献综述法和对比分析法总结我国耕地非农化的研究及发展趋势。［结果］（1）从研究内容上看，我国耕地非农化研究内容丰富，耕地非农化发展现状主要涉及耕地非农化时空演变特征及规律，发展异质性显著； 耕地非农化对经济发展的正面影响较为明显，但对社会及生态环境的负面影响更为突出； 驱动力及驱动机制对耕地非农化的作用具有两面性； 耕地非农化体制机制、技术层面的调控因地区性发展差异而有所不同； 研究多以耕地非农化的静态为主，动态性不强，对耕地非农化发展过程的控制与管控研究存在不足。（2）从研究尺度上看，我国耕地非农化研究集中在以全国和省市域为主的宏观地域上，对全国以及各省份及其内部范畴的耕地非农化做出研究分析，该尺度范围内耕地非农化发展大体呈不均衡态势，而目前我国对于微观层面上的研究相对较少。（3）从研究方法上看，学者们多以定性方法为主，采用定性与定量相结合的方法研究土地利用问题，通过数理统计分析研究耕地非农化的驱动机制，并结合遥感与GIS技术对土地利用变化进行动态监测，但多目标、多学科综合集成的智能体技术应用较少。［结论］创新耕地非农化的研究方法，构建智能决策模型； 加强耕地非农化过程管控研究，提高实时监控力度与吻合度； 厘清微观主体的行为特征，完善多尺度、多层次结构是今后研究的重点。

Abstract:

Through combing the progress of the research on the non agriculture of cultivated land in China, the author analyzed the existing research results and shortcomings, and combined the demands of the non agriculture of cultivated land in the new era to determine the future research orientation and focus, so as to provide reference and reference for enhancing the precision of the non agriculture of cultivated land. This paper summarized the research and development trend of the non agriculture of cultivated land in China by means of literature review method and comparative analysis method. The result showed that (1) From the perspective of research content, the research content of non agricultural arable land in China was rich, and the development status of non agricultural arable land mainly involved the characteristics and laws of the non agricultural space time evolution of arable land, and the development heterogeneity was significant; The positive impact of the non agriculture of cultivated land on economic development was more obvious, but the negative impact on the social and ecological environment was more prominent; The driving force and driving mechanism had two sides on the role of the non agriculture of cultivated land; The regulation of the system, mechanism and technology of the non agricultural land varied according to the regional development. The research mainly focused on the static and dynamic development of arable land, and the research on the control and control of the process of the development of arable land non agriculture was insufficient.(2) From the research scale, the research on the non agricultural cultivation of cultivated land in China focused on the macro region, which was dominated by the whole country, provinces and cities, and made a research and analysis on the non agricultural cultivation of arable land throughout the country, provinces and their internal areas. The development of the non agriculture of cultivated land in this scale was generally uneven, and there was relatively little research on the microscopic level in China at present. (3) From the point of view of research methods, scholars mainly used qualitative methods, qualitative and quantitative methods to study land use problems, and used mathematical statistical analysis to study the driving mechanism of non farming of arable land. In combination with remote sensing and GIS technology, the dynamic monitoring of land use changes was carried out, but the multi objective, multi disciplinary integrated agent technology had less application. In the future, the focus of research will be on innovating the research methods of the non farming of arable land, constructing intelligent decision making models, strengthening the research on the control of the non farming process of arable land, improving the real time monitoring and coincidence, clarifying the behavior characteristics of the microsubjects, and improving the multi scale and multi level structure.