生态城镇化的人口—产业与生态协同演化机理研究*——以江苏省城镇化为例

POPULATION-INDUSTRY-ECOLOGY SYNERGETIC EVOLUTION MECHANISM OF ECOLOGICAL URBANIZATION*——URBANIZATION IN JIANGSU

关键词:  生态城镇化协同演化人口迁移产业生态化

Key words:  ecological urbanization  synergetic evolution  population migration  industrial ecology.

摘要:

［目的］生态城镇化是传统城镇化内涵式发展的必然趋势，也是乡村振兴的重要手段。文章分析了生态城镇化的人口迁移子系统、产业演化子系统以及生态承载力子系统之间的协同演化机理，认为人口迁移与产业生态化的协调发展为生态城镇化实施提供了保障。［方法］运用Vensim PLE软件绘制人口迁移子系统、产业子系统与生态承载力子系统之间的因果反馈图，构建系统动力学模型，并基于江苏省2012—2015年城镇化数据检验系统动力学模型的有效性。［结果］（1）江苏省工业化的快速增长，推动了其产业城镇化进程，推动实现较高的人口城镇化率，产业与人口城镇化协同效应显著； （2）但是面临着生态用地规模逐渐下降，工业与城镇废水大量排放等问题，生态治理任务非常紧迫。［结论］产业城镇化与人口城镇化过程中的生态政策约束是保障生态城镇化协同发展的基础，生态城镇化发展转型是必然趋势。建议：（1）践行绿色发展理念，强化生态文明制度建设； （2）优化资源配置效率，推动经济效益与生态价值协调发展； （3）提高生态治理投入水平，改善生态治理能力。

Abstract:

Ecological urbanization is the inevitable trend of traditional urbanization which promotes new urban-rural relationship and sustainable ecological development and an important means of rural revitalization. This research analyzes the synergetic evolution mechanism between the population migration subsystem, the industrial evolution subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem of ecological urbanization, and believes that the coordinated development of population migration and industrial ecologicalization provides a guarantee for the implementation of ecological urbanization. Using Vensim PLE software，this research drew the causal feedback between the population migration subsystem, the industrial subsystem and the ecological carrying capacity subsystem, and it constructed the system dynamics model which was verified based on the urbanization data of Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2015.The results show that (1) The rapid growth of industrialization in Jiangsu province has promoted the process of industrial urbanization and promoted the realization of a higher population urbanization rate. The synergetic evolution effect between industry and population urbanization is obvious. (2) However, facing with the gradual decline in the scale of ecological land use and the large discharge of industrial and urban wastewater, the task of ecological management is very urgent. The ecological policy constraint in the process of industrial urbanization and population urbanization is the basis for ensuring the coordinated development of ecological urbanization. The development of ecological urbanization is an inevitable trend. It suggested that we should practice the concept of green development, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization system, optimize the efficiency of resource allocation and promote the coordinated development of economic benefits and ecological values, and improve the level of ecological governance investment to improve ecological governance capacity.