基于“一带一路”背景下绿色贸易壁垒对新疆瓜果出口的影响分析

AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF GREEN TRADE BARRIER ON THE EXPORT OF MELON AND FRUIT PRODUCTS IN XINJIANG* ——BASED ON THE BACKGROUND OF "THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE"

关键词:  “一带一路”绿色贸易壁垒瓜果产品引力模型新疆

Key words:  the Belt and Road Initiative  green trade barriers  melon and fruit products  gravity model  Xinjiang province

摘要:

［目的］“一带一路”是新时期中国对外开放战略的重要举措之一，新疆作为“一带一路”发展战略的前沿地带，其经济与贸易的发展具有很大的优势。瓜果作为新疆出口的重要产品，是重要的创汇来源，是经济增长的重要源泉。但随着国际贸易的深入发展，绿色贸易壁垒逐渐成为阻碍新疆瓜果出口不可忽视的因素。［方法］在分析2006—2016年新疆瓜果出口现状及遭受绿色贸易壁垒的基础上，量化新疆瓜果遭遇绿色贸易壁垒的强度，并基于引力模型实证分析绿色贸易壁垒对新疆瓜果出口的影响。［结果］绿色贸易壁垒对新疆瓜果出口产生显著的负向影响，估计系数为-0789； 同时发现，各国市场规模大小和人民币贬值对新疆瓜果出口具有显著促进作用，而关税水平对新疆瓜果出口有显著阻碍作用。［结论］研究结论可对新疆瓜果产业发展提供现实指导意义。

Abstract:

The Belt and Road Initiative is one of the important measures of China′s opening up strategy in the new era. And it has made significant headway and provided new impetus for national economic development. Xinjiang as a forefront of "the Belt and Road Initiative" has great advantages in its economic and trade development. As the major products of Xinjiang′s exports, melon and fruit products have played a huge role in its economy growth. However, with the development of international trade, green trade barriers have become an important factor that can′t be ignored in the melon and fruit export in Xinjiang. Based on the analysis of the status quo of melon and fruit products exports and the situation of green trade barriers in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2016, we quantified the intensity of green trade barriers in Xinjiang. At the same time, we investigated the impacts of green trade barriers on exports of melon and fruit products in Xinjiang by using the gravity model. The results show that green trade barriers has a significant negative impact on the exports of melon and fruit products in Xinjiang, with the elasticity of -0.789. Meanwhile, the results also show that the size of GDP of the two countries and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on the exports, and the tariff level has a significant negative impact on the export of melon and fruits in Xinjiang. Finally, we provide some policy recommendations to support the industry development of melon and fruits products in Xinjiang.