农业生产风险对区域经济的影响分析

ANYLYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY

关键词:  农业生产风险因子区域经济层次分析法评价体系

Key words:  agricultural production  risk factors  regional economy  analytical hierarchy process  evaluation system

摘要:

［目的］农业作为国民经济的基础产业对区域经济的发展至关重要，两者之间存在相互影响和相互制约的耦合关系。文章通过对作用于农业生产活动的主要因子对区域经济的影响研究，以期筛选出两者相互作用的关键因子，为规避或降低农业生产风险、协调经济发展提供理论基础。［方法］通过选取作用于农业生产活动的36个作用因子，对农业生产风险因子对区域经济的影响程度进行综合评分，采用层次分析法分析各指标对农业生产与区域经济影响的重要程度。［结果］（1）市场需求量、农民人均纯收入、农业机械化总动力、市场价格动态、农作物种类和面积、农药化肥施用量、农田有效灌溉面积、单位耕地面积粮食产量、干旱、温度、洪涝、农业机械自动化、交通运输条件、农业信息化、农业技术推广程度等是重要性排序为前15位的风险因子。（2）随着农业机械自动化、农业信息化和农业技术推广程度的进步，干旱、温度和洪涝等风险因子对农业生产造成的产量风险随之降低。而市场需求、市场价格动态等对农业生产的作用风险在扩大，特别是在区域经济发展不稳定、发展不平衡的情况下更为突出。（3）政府财政对农业的投入、投资的规模和结构以及对农产品价格和流通的干预则影响到农业生产经营、地区生产总值和GDP的增长速率； 且农业资源利用程度、栽培环境的保护以及农业环境污染的保护和治理则是区域经济可持续发展的重点。［结论］通过测度不同评价指标对农业生产的影响程度，指出作用于区域经济的关键风险因子，对降低和规避农业风险，协调农业与区域经济的稳定、可持续发展具有重要意义。

Abstract:

Agriculture as the basic industry of national economy, is very important to the development of regional economy, which has a coupling relationship to the agriculture. This research is planned to study the impact of the main factors affecting agricultural production on regional economy, so as to find out the key factors of their interaction and provide theoretical basis for avoiding or reducing agricultural production risks and coordinating economic development. It carried out a comprehensive assessment of the impact of agricultural production risk factors on regional economy by filtering 36 risk factors for agricultural production activities, and analyzed the influence of each indicator affecting agricultural production on regional economy development by using the analytic hierarchy process. The results showed that, the top 15 risk factors were included that the market demand, the per capita net income of farmers, the total motive force of agricultural mechanization, the market price dynamics, the variety and area of crops, the amount of pesticide and chemical fertilizer, the effective irrigation area of farmland, the grain yield per unit cultivated land, dry drought, temperature, flood, and automation of agricultural machinery, transportation, agricultural information, and agricultural technology extension. And the risk of natural disaster, such as drought, temperature and flood, on agricultural production decreased with advances of automation of agricultural machinery, agricultural informatization and extension of agricultural technology, which resulted in yield risk for agriculture. On the contrary, the risks of market demand and market price dynamic on agricultural production are expanding, especially in the situation of unstable regional economic development and unbalanced development. Also, the government financial input to agriculture, the scale and structure of investment, and the intervention in the price and circulation of agricultural products affected the growth rate of agricultural production and operation, gross regional product and GDP. The protection of agricultural resources, the high quality cultivation environment to the crops, and the controlling agricultural environmental pollution could attribute to the sustainable development of regional economy. By measuring the degree of influence of different evaluation indicators on agricultural production, it points out the key risk factors acting on the regional economy, which is of great significance for reducing and avoiding agricultural risks and coordinating the sustainable development of agriculture and regional economy.