| 摘要: |
| ［目的］探究气候变化对灌溉井供水可靠性的影响及主要影响因素，以期为政府科学、合理制定相关政策提供实证依据。［方法］基于2010—2012年中国华北5省100个村庄实地调查数据，以作物灌溉面积未受影响比例作为衡量供水可靠性指标，构建村级供水可靠性理论模型，运用多元回归模型，实证分析气候变化对灌溉井供水可靠性的影响及影响因素。［结果］（1）长期气候变化显著影响灌溉井供水可靠性，气候变化因素对灌溉井无水和缺水供水可靠性影响方向和作用程度不同；（2）村级灌溉井状况、村级组织灌溉管理状况与极端气候等变量显著影响灌溉井供水可靠性；（3）年份和地区虚拟变量对灌溉井供水可靠性影响存在差异。［结论］提出构建和培育更加完善的农业气象灾害监测预警系统，加强农田灌溉设施建设及维护，推进农业灌溉用水管理制度改革，发展各种形式农民合作组织，是提高中国农业生产适应气候变化能力的重要举措。 |
| 关键词: 供水可靠性灌溉水源地下水资源气候变化华北 |
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| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目“新时期农地流转农业补贴与主产区小麦生产行为及农业政策改革研究”（14BGL093）； 国家自然科学基金项目“基于原产地形象的特色农产品购买行为研究”（71403082）； 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“农户行为目标偏好对地理标志农产品种植决策的影响研究——以河南省为例”（14YJC790080）； 河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划项目“基于修正Fishbein合理行为模型的消费者特色农产品购买行为研究”（2015GGJS 085）； 河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划“基于个人—家庭视角的可追溯食品购买行为研究”（2017 cxrc 002）； 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于消费者偏好的可追溯食品购买行为与消费政策实验研究”（2017BJJ033）； 河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究一般项目“基于实验经济学的消费者可追溯食品购买行为与消费者政策研究”（2019 ZZJH 327） |
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| IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY FOR IRRIGATION WELLS*——EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION BASED ON 100 VILLAGES IN NORTH CHINA WELL IRRIGATION DISTRICT |
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Liu Ruifeng, Liang Fei, Ma Hengyun
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College of Economics and Management, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450046, China
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| Abstract: |
| This research aims to investigate the effect of climate change on water supply reliability of irrigation wells and its major influencing factors, so as to provide government with empirical evidence for the relevant policy reference. Based on the field survey data of 100 villages in five provinces of North China from 2010 to 2012, the theoretical model of village level water supply reliability was built by taking the unaffected proportion of irrigated area of crops as the index to measure the water supply reliability. The influence of climate change on the water supply reliability of irrigation wells and the influencing factors were empirically analyzed by using the multiple regression model. The major results were showed as follows. Firstly, long term climate change significantly affected the water supply reliability of irrigation wells, and the influence direction and degree of climate change factors on the water supply reliability of irrigation wells were different. Secondly, variables such as the condition of village irrigation wells, the condition of village organization irrigation management and extreme climate significantly affected the water supply reliability of irrigation wells. Finally, the influence of year and region dummy variables on water supply reliability of irrigation wells was different. According to the research results, it is proposed to construct and cultivate a more perfect agrometeorological disaster monitoring and warning system, strengthen the construction and maintenance of farmland irrigation facilities, promote the reform of agricultural irrigation water management system, and develop various forms of farmer cooperative organizations, which are important measures to improve China′s agricultural production ability to adapt to climate change. |
| Key words: water supply reliability irrigation water groundwater resources climate change North China |
