土地流转费用上涨对粮食生产的影响研究*——基于种植结构调整、农作物品质调整和要素替代的视角

THE RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF LAND TRANSFERENCE COSTS RISING ON GRAIN PRODUCTION*——BASED ON THE ADJUSTMENT OF PLANTING STRUCTURE, ADJUSTMENT OF CROPS AND SUBSTITUTION OF PRODUCTION FACTORS

关键词:  土地流转费用粮食生产种植结构调整农作物品质调整生产要素替代

Key words:  land transference costs  grain production  adjustment of planting structure  adjustment of crops quality  substitution of production factors

摘要:

［目的］在土地流转费用迅速攀升的背景下，系统研究土地流转费用上涨对粮食生产的影响，有助于更好地实现农业规模经营和农业现代化。［方法］使用2012—2016年江苏省物价局调研的微观农户数据，从理论和实证两个方面，分析了土地流转费用上涨对土地转入户粮食生产的影响。［结果］土地流转价格上涨对土地转入户的农业生产决策和农业生产方式会产生显著影响。具体而言，面对土地流转费用上涨，土地转入户会调节粮食作物种植结构，表现为减少粮食作物种植比例而增加经济作物种植比例。同时，土地转入户还会调整作物种植品种，表现为减少普通粮食作物种植而增加优质粮食作物种植。此外，土地转入户在农业生产中还会优化农业生产要素投入结构，表现为减少劳动力的使用而增加机械的使用。［结论］面对土地流转价格上涨，土地转入户会基于利润目标来采取相应的农业生产策略，因此土地转入户的农业生产收益会在一定范围内有所保证，但需要警惕的是土地流转价格上涨会使土地转入户减少粮食作物种植比例而增加经济作物种植比例，当粮食作物和经济作物种植比例发生较大逆转时，这会影响我国粮食产量。

Abstract:

Under the background that the transaction costs of land transference grew up rapidly, systematic research on the impact of land transference costs rising on grain production will help to achieve agricultural scale management and agricultural modernization better. This paper systematically analyzed the impact of the increase of transaction costs of the land transference on households′ grain production from the theoretical and empirical aspects, which used the micro farmer′s agricultural production data surveyed by Jiangsu Provincial Price Bureau from 2012 to 2016. The results showed that, the increase of land transaction costs had a significant impact on agricultural production decisions and agricultural production patterns for land transfer households. In particular, land transfer households adjusted the grain crop structure under the pressure of rising land transaction costs, they cultivated more economic crops instead of grain crops. At the same time, land transfer households also adjusted crop varieties, they cultivated more high quality grain crop instead of ordinary grain crop. In addition, land transfer households reduced the use of machinery and increased the use of labor in agricultural production so that they optimized the input structure of agricultural production factors. Based on the above findings, we believe that land transfer households will adopt the corresponding agricultural production strategies based on profit targets in the face of rising land transaction costs, so that the agricultural production income of the land transfer households will be guaranteed within a certain range. But we are supposed to be vigilant that the increase of land transaction costs will force the land transfer households to reduce the proportion of grain crops and increase the proportion of economic crops, when the proportions of grain crops and economic crops are reversed greatly, China′s grain production will be affected to some extent.