产品和地理多样化对农产品贸易的影响分析

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF PRODUCT AND GEOGRAPHY DIVERSIFICATION ON AGRICULTURAL TRADE

关键词:  产品多样化地理多样化农产品进出口波动性

Key words:  product diversification  geography diversification  agricultural products  import and export  volatility

摘要:

［目的］农业在中国经济发展中一直处于基础产业地位，其既是人类赖以生存的物质基础，同时也是重要的工业原料。另外，在世界农产品贸易中，中国也扮演着十分重要的角色。因此，农产品的进出口对中国的农业生产有着深远影响，农产品进出口的稳定性直接决定了中国农业生产的稳定性。为此，将从产品和地理多样化视角，探究中国农产品进出口的稳定性。［方法］利用标准化赫芬达尔指数对中国农产品出口（进口）的地理多样化和产品多样化进行了测度，并在此基础上，进一步利用回归方法对出口（进口）地理多样化和产品多样化对农产品出口（进口）波动性的影响进行了检验。［结果］无论是出口还是进口，地理多样化和产品多样化都存在不同程度的行业异质性； 无论是出口还是进口，地理多样化和产品多样化对农产品贸易波动性的影响存在着不同程度的行业异质性。［结论］在产品结构和地理结构方面，根据不同商品类别采取多样化或专一化政策以减少中国农产品进出口的波动性。

Abstract:

Agriculture is always a basic industry in economic development of China, which is not only the material basis of human existence, but also the important industrial raw material. And China is playing an important role in the world trade of agricultural products. So the import and export of agricultural products of China have the profound influence on the agricultural production of China, and the stability of the agricultural production of China depends on the stability of the import and export of agricultural products of China. So this research will make an analysis on the stability of the import and export of agricultural products of China from the angle of geography diversification and product diversification. And it measured geography diversification and product diversification of export or import of agricultural products by using the standardized index of HHI. Moreover, it examined the result of influence of geography diversification and product diversification of export or import of agricultural products on volatility of export or import of agricultural products by adopting the method of regression. And it was found that different agricultural products had different degree of geography diversification and product diversification of export or import. Different agricultural products had different result of influence of geography diversification and product diversification of export or import of agricultural products on volatility of export or import of agricultural products. At last some enlightenments are found that the volatility of the import or export of China′s agricultural products can be reduced by the diversification or the specialization in the products structure and geographical structure according to the different merchandize categories.