淮安市乡村旅游驱动力及其互融发展水平测度

DRIVING FORCE OF RURAL TOURISM IN HUAI′AN CITY AND ITS INTEGRATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL MEASUREMENT

关键词:  乡村旅游驱动因素相关性分析层次分析法淮安市

Key words:  rural tourism  driving factor  correlation analysis  AHP  Huai′an city

摘要:

［目的］淮安市乡村旅游正处于快速发展阶段，从动力学的角度探索乡村旅游的动力机制，对提高淮安市乡村旅游的发展效益具有重大意义。［方法］文章利用相关性分析法对淮安市乡村旅游驱动力进行分析，找到乡村旅游的驱动因素。在分析驱动因素的基础上，用层次分析法对农业、工业和旅游业的互融发展水平进行估测，了解淮安市产业融合的发展水平。［结果］相关性分析结果表明，旅游业总收入与12个指标都具有显著和极显著的相关性。其中，旅游业总收入与空气质量优良率具有显著的负相关性，相关指数为-0707，与其他指标间的相关指数都为正值，说明除空气质量优良率外的11个指标对淮安市乡村旅游都具有驱动作用。层次分析法结果表明，淮安市旅游业发展水平和农业发展水平的权重最高，分别为0353 7和0326 5，产业融合水平较低（0199 0），工业发展水平最低（0120 8）。［结论］淮安市农业发展较平稳，旅游业正处于快速发展的水平，工业发展水平相对较弱，产业融合发展水平较低。今后，应该注重旅游业与农业、工业的协调发展，协调好发展与环境的关系，实现淮安市乡村旅游的可持续发展。

Abstract:

Rural tourism in Huai′an city is in a rapid development stage at present. It is of great significance to explore the dynamic mechanism of rural tourism in Huai′an city from the point of view of dynamics for improving the efficiency of rural tourism development in Huai′an city. This paper analyzed the driving force of rural tourism in Huaian city by means of correlation analysis, and found out the driving factors of rural tourism. On the basis of analyzing the driving factors, it estimated the level of mutual integration development of agriculture, industry and tourism by using analytic hierarchy process, and understood the development level of Huai′an industrial integration. The results of correlation analysis showed that there were significant and extremely significant correlations between total tourism revenue and 12 indicators. Among them, total tourism revenue and air quality excellent and good rate had a significant negative correlation, the correlation index was -0.707, and the correlation index between tourism and other indicators were all positive. The results showed that 11 indexes except air quality had driving effect on rural tourism in Huai′an city. The results of AHP showed that the weight of tourism development level and agricultural development level in Huaian city was the highest, which was 0.353 7 and 0.326 5, respectively, the level of industrial convergence was lower with the value 0.199 0, and the level of industrial development was the lowest with the value 0.120 8. In summary, the development of agriculture in Huai′an is relatively stable, tourism is at a fast development level, the level of industrial development is relatively weak, and the level of industrial convergence is relatively low. In the future, we should pay attention to the coordinated development of tourism, agriculture and industry, and coordinate the relationship between development and environment, to realize the sustainable development of rural tourism in Huai′an city.