江苏省农业生态可持续发展评价

EVALUATION ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGY IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  农业生态能值分析环境负载率能值可持续性指数江苏省

Key words:  agro ecosystem  emergy analysis  environmental load rate  emergy sustainability index  Jiangsu province

摘要:

［目的］农业生态系统是国民经济的基础，是农民生活和农业发展的基础，农业生态系统的稳定和可持续发展对促进我国农业发展和国家稳定具有重大意义。［方法］文章利用能值分析法以2005—2016年为时间序列对江苏省农业生态系统进行研究，通过一系列指标评价其可持续性。［结果］（1）环境贡献率分析结果表明，2005—2010年生态环境受到一定的影响，耕地面积逐渐减少，环境受到一定的影响， 2011年后，环境有所改善。（2）能值投入率分析结果表明，整体呈现先下降后上升再下降的趋势， 2007—2012年能值投入率有所升高， 2014年达到最大值， 2014—2016年开始下降，该结果说明2008—2014年经济发展迅速。（3）环境负载率分析结果表明环境负载压力逐年上升，但2014—2016年环境负载率趋于稳定，说明江苏省对环境的利用达到一定的平衡。（4）能值可持续性指数分析结果表明各年指数均在3~45之间，说明江苏省农业生态系统处于较好的可持续发展状态。［结论］江苏省农业生态系统整体上发展较好，可持续发展潜力较大，但在发展农业的过程中注意推广先进的科学技术，提高资源利用效率，降低对环境的负载率，促进环境与农业生态的协调发展。

Abstract:

Agroecosystem is the foundation of the national economy, the life of farmers and the development of agriculture. The stability and sustainable development of agro ecosystem is of great significance to promote the agricultural development and national stability in China. In this paper, the agro ecosystem of Jiangsu province was studied with emergy analysis method from 2005 to 2016, and its sustainability was evaluated by a series of indexes. The results of environmental contribution rate analysis showed that the ecological environment was affected from 2005 to 2010, the cultivated land area was gradually reduced, the environment was affected to some extent, and after 2011, the environment was improved. The results of emergy input rate analysis showed that the overall energy input rate increased from 2007 to 2012, and reached its maximum value in 2014 and began to decline from 2014 to 2016. The results showed that the economic development was rapid from 2008 to 2014. The results of environmental load rate analysis showed that the environmental load pressure increased year by year, but the environmental load rate tended to be stable from 2014 to 2016, which indicated that the utilization of the environment in Jiangsu province had reached a certain balance. The results of emergy sustainability index analysis showed that the annual index was between 3 and 4.5, which indicated that the agricultural ecosystem of Jiangsu province was in a good state of sustainable development. The agricultural ecosystem of Jiangsu province has a good overall development and great potential for sustainable development. However, in the process of agricultural development, attention should be paid to the promotion of advanced science and technology, the improvement of resource utilization efficiency, the reduction of the load rate on the environment and promote the coordinated development of the environment and agro ecology.