基于碳排放的河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率分析及对策建议

ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES FOR GREEN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN HENAN PROVINCE BASED ON CARBON EMISSION

关键词:  碳排放粮食绿色全要素生产率时空演变空间相关性

Key words:  carbon emission  grain  green total factor productivity  temporal and spatial evolution  spatial correlation

摘要:

［目的］为探索粮食绿色增产模式，推进农业供给侧结构性改革和绿色可持续发展。［方法］分别运用SBM-ML指数模型与DEA Malmquist指数模型对2004—2016年河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率和传统全要素生产率进行测算和对比分析，并采用ESDA法探讨了粮食绿色全要素生产率与粮食产出的空间关联性。［结果］河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率明显低于传统全要素生产率； 2004—2016年河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率的驱动因素经历了由技术进步驱动转变为技术效率驱动再转变为技术进步和技术效率共同驱动的过程，但技术进步的贡献率明显高于技术效率； 河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率与粮食产出的二元全局空间自相关大体呈“N”型变化，粮食绿色全要素生产率和粮食产出由不平衡发展逐渐趋向平衡发展。［结论］忽视碳排放的传统粮食全要素生产率测算与实际有较大偏差。建议通过转变发展模式，探索粮食绿色增产道路； 因地制宜，有效利用技术进步和技术效率双轮驱动； 不断推进河南省粮食绿色全要素生产率与粮食产出的平衡发展3项措施来实现粮食生产的综合提升。

Abstract:

This paper is to explore the mode of green increasing grain production and promote the structural reform of agricultural supply side and green sustainable development. The SBM ML index model and the DEA Malmquist index model were used to calculate and compare the green total factor productivity of grain and the total factor productivity of the traditional grain for 2004 2016 years in Henan province, and to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution law of the green total factor productivity of grain in Henan province. The spatial correlation between the green total factor productivity of grain and grain output was studied by ESDA method. The GTFP of grain in Henan was significantly lower than that of traditional TFP. The driving factors of the green total factor productivity of grain in Henan province in the past 2004~2016 years have undergone a process from technological progress driven to technological efficiency driven, then to technological progress and technical efficiency, but the contribution rate of technological progress is obviously higher than that of technical efficiency. The binary global space spatial autocorrelation of GTFP and grain output in Henan province is generally "N" type, and the GTFP and grain output from unbalanced development gradually tend to balanced development. The measurement of traditional TFP ignores carbon emissions is far from reality. It is suggested that three measures should be taken to achieve a comprehensive promotion of grain production by changing the development model and exploring the road of grain green increasing production, adapting to local conditions and making effective use of technology progress and technical efficiency, and promoting the balanced development of the grain green total factor productivity and grain output in Henan province.