黄河三角州地区热量资源变化特征分析

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THERMAL RESOURCES CHANGES IN THE YELLOW RIVER DELTA

关键词:  气温积温初终日数特征分析黄河三角洲

Key words:  temperature  accumulated temperature  initial and final days  feature analysis  the Yellow River Delta

摘要:

［目的］通过对黄河三角州地区热量指标分析，了解黄三角地区30年热量资源的变化特征。［方法］利用黄三角地区及周边共25个国家级气象站30年逐日气象数据，采用线性趋势估计法、Mann Kendall突变分析、T滑动法、ARCGIS空间插值等方法，对黄三角地区年平均气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温、≥0℃、≥10℃初终日及持续日数等进行时间和空间分析。［结果］（1）年平均气温、≥0℃、≥10℃积温均呈波动上升趋势， 20世纪90年代增温最快，年平均气温、≥0℃积温在1996—1997年发生突变； 季平均气温以冬季增温最为明显。(2)年平均气温、≥0℃、≥10℃积温空间分布基本一致，中西部地区，与纬度成反相关，经度成正相关。(3)≥0℃、≥10℃的初终间日数均呈上升趋势，其空间分布相似，中西部地区与纬度成反相关，经度成正相关。(4)≥0℃、≥10℃的初日为提前趋势，终日为推迟趋势，其空间分布特征中西部地区初日均与纬度成正相关，与经度相关程度不大； ≥0℃终日与纬度成负相关，与经度成正相关，≥10℃终日与纬度相关程度不大，与经度成正相关。［结论］黄三角地区热量资源呈增加趋势。

Abstract:

This research aims to know the changing characteristics about the thermal resources of the Yellow River Delta in the recent 30 years through the feature analysis of the heat index of the Yellow River Delta. Based on the meteorological data of 25 national meteorological stations in the Yellow River Delta and the surrounding area for 30 years, this research used the linear trend estimation method, Mann Kendall mutation analysis, the T slip method and ARCGIS spatial interpolation methods, to analyze the data in time and space, including the average annual temperature, ≥0℃, ≥10℃ accumulative temperature and ≥0℃, ≥10℃ initial and final days, duration days, etc. The results showed that the annual average temperature, ≥0℃, and ≥10℃ all showed a rising trend of fluctuation. In the 1990s, the warming rate was fastest. The annual average temperature and ≥0℃ accumulated temperature had abruptly changed from 1996 to 1997. The rising average temperature in winter was the most obvious. The annual average temperature and ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature were basically the same in the spatial distribution of accumulated temperature. In the central and western regions of China, there was an inverse correlation with latitude, and positively correlated with longitude. The initial and final days of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ showed a rising trend and the spatial distribution was similar. In the central and western regions of China, there was an inverse correlation with latitude, and positively correlated with longitude. The first day of ≥0℃ and ≥10℃ showed an early trend and the final day of them showed rising trend. In the central and western regions the first day of getting 0℃ and 10℃ was positively correlated with the latitude and had little correlation with longitude. The final day of ≥ 0℃ was negatively correlated with latitude and positively correlated with longitude. But the final day of ≥10℃ was not correlated with latitude and had a positive correlation with longitude. The heat resources show a rising trend in the Yellow River Delta.