2005—2015年我国马铃薯增产空间分异与贡献因素

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND CONTRIBUTION FACTORS OF CHINA′S POTATO OUTPUT INCREASE FROM 2005 TO 2015

关键词:  马铃薯增产格局贡献因素粮食安全中国

Key words:  potato  pattern of yield increase  contributing factors  China

摘要:

［目的］马铃薯增产空间分异和贡献因素的研究对我国马铃薯主粮化战略和保障粮食安全有重要意义。［方法］运用对数平均迪式指数法（LMDI），以2005年和2015年我国省级地区马铃薯种植面积和产量为基础，对其增产格局和增产贡献因素进行定量化研究。［结果］（1）2005—2015年，我国马铃薯种植面积和产量总体态势表现为在波动中上升，前6位的省区贡献了增产量的7803%，西南混作区和北方一季区是我国马铃薯增产主要区域。(2)从增产增幅来看，低于全国平均增速的滞后增产类型和高于全国平均增速的超速增产类型的省域单元最多，分别占到44%和32%，超速增产的地区主要集中在西部，西北一季区和云贵一二混作区马铃薯种植地位不断上升。(3)增产的21个省区中，有11个单产增加贡献较大， 10个面积增加贡献较大。单产增加对增产贡献极显著的省为山东、辽宁、黑龙江、湖南、福建和贵州6省，面积增加对产量增加贡献极显著的地区主要有青海、云南、甘肃、湖北、宁夏和四川等地。［结论］对于主要依靠面积增加来提高产量的地区，应合理配置轮作作物，增大科技投入，推广优良品种更新，挖掘耕地增产潜力。

Abstract:

Research on the spatial differentiation and contributing factors of increase production of potato can be of great importance for Potato Master Grain Strategy and food security in China. Based on the planting area and yield of potato at provincial level in 2005 and 2015, we performed a quantitative research on the spatial differentiation and contributing factors of potato in China by using a logarithmic mean weigh division index method (LMDI). Our results indicated that: (1) The planting area and yield of potato from 2005 to 2015 showed an increase tendency in fluctuation overall. The top six provinces, where mainly located at southwest mixed farming area and northern planting areas, were accounted for 78.03% of the increased production. (2) Provinces that the increased production were less or higher than average growth rate at the national level, were defined as the hysteresis type or the overspeed type, respectively. Provinces included in these two types had the largest number in China, with a percentage of 44% and 32%, respectively. Spatially, the overspeed type was concentrated in the west of China, which implied the increasing important status of potato planting in the northwest planting area and southwest mixed farming area. (3) 11 out of the 21 provinces increased yield were owing to the high yields per cultivated area, while the rest were contributed by the increased planting areas. For the former, the increased yield of potato in Shandong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hunan, Fujian and Guizhou province exhibited an extremely significantly affected by the high yields per cultivated area. While, Qinghai, Yunnan, Gansu, Hubei, Ningxia and Sichuan province were significantly influenced by the increased planting areas. For areas that rely mainly on the increased planting areas to increase yield, rotation crops should be rationally allocated, scientific and technological input should be increased, and excellent varieties should be promoted to expand the potential for increasing yield of cultivated land.