西北边疆民族地区农业发展与农民收入的时空耦合特征研究*——以新疆南疆为例

STUDY ON SPATIOTEMPORAL COUPLING CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FARMERS′ INCOME IN FRONTIER ETHNIC REGIONS OF NORTHWEST CHINA*——TAKING SOUTHERN XINJIANG AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  农业发展农民收入时空耦合西北边疆民族地区南疆

Key words:  agricultural development  farmers′ income  spatiotemporal coupling  frontier ethnic regions of Northwest China  Southern Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］农业发展是实现农民收入增长的重要条件，农民增收可以有效促进区域农业发展，揭示两者之间的作用规律为实现区域农业和农村经济协调发展提供理论支撑。［方法］文章研究利用耦合协调模型分析1996—2015年南疆农业发展和农民收入之间的互动关系及耦合协调程度。［结果］(1)在时间演化上，南疆农民收入增长长期滞后于农业发展，两者耦合度一直处于拮抗状态； (2)两者耦合协调关系明显改观，由“九五”期初的中度失调阶段发展为“十二五”期末的中级协调阶段，总体上经历了“波动上升—缓慢上升—快速上升”的过程；(3)从空间分异角度来看，由于产业同质性逐渐增强，各地州耦合度变化趋同。［结论］南疆农业发展和农民收入之间相互带动作用不够明显、发展不够平衡。因此，通过加强新型职业农民能力建设和推进农业产业差异化与品质化布局来实现南疆农业发展和农民收入之间的协调发展。

Abstract:

Agricultural development is an important condition for realizing the growth of farmers′ income which can effectively promote regional agricultural development. To reveal the function and the regular between the agricultural development and farmers′ income provides theoretical support for the coordinated development of regional agriculture and rural economy. In this study, coupling coordination model was used to analyze the interaction and the degree of coupling coordination between agricultural development and farmers′ income from 1996 to 2015 in Southern Xinjiang. The research showed that in terms of time evolution, the income growth of farmers lagged behind the development of agriculture for a long time in Southern Xinjiang, and their coupling degree had been in a state of antagonism. The coupling and coordination relationship between the agricultural development and farmers′ income had significantly changed from the moderate imbalance stage at the beginning of the 9th Five year Plan to the intermediate coordination stage at the end of the 12th Five year Plan. In general, it experienced the process of "rising fluctuation slow rising fast rising". From the perspective of spatial differentiation, due to the increasing industrial homogeneity, the change of the degree of regional coupling was converging in different prefecture. The mutual drive between agricultural development and farmers′ income in Southern Xinjiang is not obvious enough and the development is not balanced enough. Therefore, the agricultural development of Southern Xinjiang and the coordinated development of farmers′ income can be realized through strengthening new professional farmers′ capacity and promoting the differentiation and quality distribution of agricultural industry.