中国小麦生产的时空演变特征及其影响因素分析

SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF WHEAT PRODUCTION IN CHINA

关键词:  小麦生产时空演变基尼系数空间面板杜宾模型产业集中度

Key words:  wheat production  spatiotemporal evolution  Gini coefficient  spatial panel Durbin model  industrial concentration index

摘要:

［目的］分析小麦生产的时空演变特征及成因，可以掌握小麦生产的时空分布规律，从而更加合理地配置农业资源，优化农业生产的空间布局，推动农业供给侧结构性改革，保障小麦产业的稳定发展。［方法］首先利用基尼系数、产业集中度指数等指标对1978—2016年我国小麦生产的时空演变特征进行分析，然后建立空间面板杜宾模型定量研究我国小麦生产布局变化的驱动因素。［结果］］改革开放以来，我国小麦生产逐渐向优势区域集中，集中程度不断提高，呈现出由东向西、由南向北的空间移动趋势，并且小麦生产表现出较强的空间依赖性。实证研究结果表明，农村劳动力的非农就业机会对小麦生产规模具有显著的负向影响，小麦生产的比较效益、农业机械化发展水平和小麦的平均产量对小麦生产规模具有显著的正向影响，此外小麦生产的比较效益和农业机械化发展水平还对邻近地区的小麦生产规模具有正向溢出效应。［结论］为保证我国小麦供给的安全，应进一步提高小麦的单产水平，大力提升小麦耕、种、收等环节的机械化水平，并不断提高小麦种植的比较效益。

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors, identity spatiotemporal distributional law for wheat production, and further rationally allocate agricultural resource, optimize the spatial distribution of agricultural production, promote supply side structural reform, thus ensure stable development of wheat industry. The Gini coefficient, industrial concentration index and other indicators were used to analyze spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Chinese wheat production from 1978 to 2016. And spatial panel Durbin model was used to study the driving factors of wheat production distributional difference in China. Since 1978, wheat production in China had gradually concentrated to the dominant regions and the degree of concentration had been continuously improved. It showed a trend of spatial movement from east to west and from south to north. Wheat production showed a strong spatial dependence. The result of empirical analysis showed that, the non agricultural employment opportunities of rural labor force had a significantly negative effect on the scale of wheat production. The comparative benefits of wheat production, development level of agricultural mechanization and average yield of wheat had significant positive effects on the scale of wheat production; In addition, the comparative benefits of wheat production and the development level of agricultural mechanization had positive spillover effects on wheat production scale in adjacent areas. Under the background of supply side structural reform of agriculture and the rapid development of urbanization, both wheat planting area and the labor force engaged in wheat production appear to decrease continuously, which may endanger the stable supply of wheat in China. In order to ensure the safety of China′s wheat supply, more efforts should be made to support the advantageous areas of wheat production. The average yield of wheat can be further increased through the construction of high standard grain fields and the modification of wheat varieties, the vigorous development of agricultural mechanization to deal with the shortage of wheat production labor supply caused by the continuous outflow of rural labor force, and also through developing high quality wheat product to improve comparative benefit of wheat planting.