四川水资源压力与耕地利用效益变化的格局及耦合关系

STUDY ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLVEMENT AND COUPLING EFFECT OF WATER RESOURCES PRESSURE AND CULTIVATED LAND USE EFFICIENCY IN SICHUAN

关键词:  水资源压力耕地利用效益耦合效应时空演变四川省

Key words:  water resource pressure  cultivated land utilization benefit  coupling effect  spatio temporal dynamics  Sichuan province

摘要:

［目的］以我国传统的农业大省——四川省为研究区域，构建水资源压力评价模型、耕地利用效益评价模型，对各市（州）水资源压力与耕地利用效益及耦合效应进行研究，以期为区域水土资源协调发展提供借鉴。［方法］基于2005、2008、2011、2014年各市（州）4期水土资源的相关数据，运用量化分析法和Jenks最佳自然断裂法及GIS空间分析法进行实证研究。［结果］(1)各市（州）水资源压力从时间尺度看，水资源经济和技术发展压力逐渐减小，平均值分别由2005年的0595和0007减小到2014年的-0178和-0033，人口和生态发展压力逐渐增大，平均值分别由2005年的-7314和-203增加到2014年的-6035和-1571，水资源综合压力有明显波动； 从空间尺度看，水资源压力从高到低的区域依次为川中平原区、川东北丘陵区、川南丘陵区、攀西地区、川西北高原区。(2)各市（州）耕地利用效益从时间序列看，川南丘区和川西高原区耕地利用效益相对比较稳定，川中平原区、川东北丘区、攀西地区耕地利用效益则变化较大甚至有减小趋势； 从空间分布特征看，土地利用效益值从大到小依次为川中平原区、川东北丘陵区、攀西地区、川南丘陵区、川西北高原区。(3)通过Spearman等级相关分析发现，水资源综合压力与耕地利用综合效益，水资源人口压力与耕地利用社会效益在置信度为001时显著相关，相关系数分别为0555和0560，呈现出较高的协调演进格局，耦合特征与前文水资源压力和耕地利用效益的分区格局基本一致； 而耕地利用经济、生态效益与水资源经济、生态效益间的相关性则表现为不显著。［结论］研究发现，影响两者耦合协调发展的内外部因素主要包括区域人口、资源禀赋所存在的差异和工业化、新型城镇化进程的加快给社会经济发展带来巨大的变革。

Abstract:

This research aims to build the evaluation model of water resource pressure and the evaluation model of cultivated land use efficiency, and studies the coupling effect of water resource pressure and cultivated land use efficiency in each city (prefecture), so as to provide reference for the coordinated development of regional water and soil resources. Taking the traditional agricultural province of China Sichuan province as the research area and the data of soil and water resources from 2005、2008、2011 and 2014, this research used the methods of the quantitative analysis, the Jenks best natural fracture and GIS analysis to conduct the empirical research. The results were showed as follows. (1) The water pressure in the cities of Sichuan province (state) from the time scale, the development of water resources in the economic and technical pressure gradually decreased, the average values were reduced from 0.595 and 0.007 in 2005 to -0.178 and -0.033 in 2014, respectively. While the population development and ecological pressure gradually increases, the average values were increased from -7.314 and -2.03 in 2005 to -6.035 and -1.571 in 2014, respectively. And the comprehensive pressure of water resources fluctuated obviously; From the spatial scale, the water resources from high to low were in the Chuanzhong Plain, the northeastern Sichuan hilly area, the southern Sichuan hilly area, the Panxi area, and the northwest Sichuan plateau.(2) From the time series, the cultivated land use efficiency of cities (prefectures) was relatively stable in southern hilly region of Sichuan and northwest plateau region of Sichuan, while in central plain area of Sichuan, northeast hilly region of Sichuan and Panxi area, the cultivated land use efficiency changed greatly or even tended to decrease; from the spatial distribution characteristics, the values of land use efficiency from large to small were the central plain area of Sichuan, northeast hilly region of Sichuan, Panxi area, southern hilly region of Sichuan, northwest plateau region of Sichuan.(3)By means of Spearman rank correlation analysis, it was found that the water resources population pressure and the social benefit of cultivated land use, the comprehensive pressure of water resources and the comprehensive benefit of cultivated land use were significantly correlated with the confidence degree of 0.01, the correlation coefficients are 0.555 and 0.560, respectively, showing a high degree of coordinated evolution pattern, the coupling characteristics were basically consistent with the water resources pressure and the efficiency of cultivated land use; While the correlation between cultivated land use economy, ecological benefit and water resources economy and ecological benefit was not significant. The study finds that the internal and external factors that affect the coordinated development of the two include the differences and industrialization of the regional population and the resource endowment, and the acceleration of the new urbanization process has brought great changes to the social and economic development.