长江中下游水稻生产波动特征及成因分析

ANALYSIS OF THE FLUCTUATION TENDENCY AND ITS POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS OF RICE PRODUCTION IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

关键词:  水稻生产波动滤波分析价格长江中下游

Key words:  rice  production fluctuation  filtering analysis  price  the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

摘要:

［目的］分析长江中下游地区水稻生产波动特征和规律，有利于采取有效措施降低水稻生产周期波动的强度，消除波动带来的不利影响，对于稳定发展水稻生产、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。［方法］采用HP滤波分析法，对1949—2016年长江中下游地区水稻生产的长期波动和短期波动进行了测定和分析。［结果］将长江中下游地区水稻产量的短期波动分为6个波动阶段，系统剖析制度变革、要素投入、科技进步、市场走势以及气候变化等因素对水稻面积、单产以及总产波动的影响。［结论］水稻生产波动与政策导向密切相关，长江中下游水稻生产面临下行压力； 水稻产量波动的波幅较大且波峰绝对值小于波谷绝对值，水稻持续稳定增产难度较大； 现阶段面积与水稻生产波动的趋势契合度更高，科技创新亟需突破瓶颈； 水稻生产集中度进一步提高，区域性气象灾害带来的风险将越来越大。

Abstract:

By analyzing the fluctuation tendencies and features of the rice production in the Yangtze River, this research aims to develop effective measurements to minimize the fluctuation intensity of rice production and eliminate the negative impacts of the fluctuations, which is essential for the stable development of rice production and the national food security. Using the HP filtering method, we analyzed the long term and short term fluctuation of rice production in the Yangtze River Basin from 1949 to 2016. The short term fluctuation of rice production in the Yangtze River from 1949 to 2016 was tentatively divided into six periods. Detailed analysis was conducted on the impacts of policy reform, production inputs, technology innovation, market conditions and climate change on the rice area, yield and total output. The tendency of rice production is compatible to policy guidance, and the rice production in the Yangtze River Basin is encountering great pressure going downward. The absolute value of the trough is larger than that of the wave crest, making it a great challenge to achieve a sustainable increase in rice production. At present, the amount of planting area remain to be a major contributor to the rice production fluctuation, indicating that the innovation in the science and technology is urgent needed. The centralization of rice production will be continued, resulting increasing risks in the occurrence of the regional meteorological disasters.