基于PCA STIRPAT模型的绿洲区耕地变化社会经济驱动力研究*——以酒泉市为例

ANALYSIS DRIVING FORCE FOR CHANGES IN AREA OF CULTIVATED LAND OF JIUQUAN CITY BASED ON PCA STIRPAT MODEL

关键词:  耕地面积主成分分析（PCA）STIRPAT模型驱动力酒泉市

Key words:  cultivated area change  Principal Component Analysis(PCA)  STIRPAT model  driving forces  Jiuquan city

摘要:

［目的］耕地是极其稀缺的自然资源之一，绿洲耕地资源是绿洲系统的重要组成部分，保持一定数量和质量的耕地资源对绿洲区社会经济生态稳定发展具有重要意义。文章以绿洲区典型城市酒泉市1997—2016年的耕地面积有关数据为基础，剖析影响酒泉市耕地面积变化的主要社会经济因素。［方法］主成分分析法和STIRPAT模型。［结果］（1）1997—2016年酒泉市耕地面积整体呈波动式减少趋势； （2）由主成分分析表明，酒泉市耕地面积变化与城镇化水平（城镇化率）、社会经济发展水平（人均GDP、公路里程、社会消费品总额、地区生产总值等）、农业产值（粮食作物总产量）存在较大相关性； （3）STIRPAT模型分析结果表明， 1997—2016年酒泉市耕地面积变化的主要驱动力是城镇化率、人均GDP及公路里程； 随着城市化率的不断提高，对酒泉市耕地面积的增加有一定的促进作用； 由于绿洲农业粗放式发展方式的广泛应用，人均GDP的增长是以牺牲更多宝贵的土地资源为代价的，导致绿洲农业面积的耕地面积进一步减少； 公路里程与耕地面积呈负相关。随着公路里程的增加，耕地面积减少，符合预期。［结论］研究认为可通过提高城镇化率、完善交通基础设施、提高区域经济发展水平、转变绿洲区农业发展方式、增加技术投入等方面遏制绿洲区耕地面积进一步减少。

Abstract:

Cultivated land is one of the scarce natural resources. The arable land resources of Oasis is the most important part of the Oasis system, so maintaining a certain amount and quality of cultivated land resource is great significance to the stable socio economic development of the Oasis region. Based on the data of arable land area in Jiuquan city, a typical city in Oasis, from 1997 to 2016, this paper analyzed the main influencing factors by using PCA STIRPAT model that affected the change of cultivated land area in Jiuquan city. The results showed that (1) The arable land area showed a fluctuating decrease overall from 1997 to 2016 in Jiuquan city; (2) The principal component analysis showed that the change of cultivated land area and urbanization level (urbanization rate), social and economic development level (per capita GDP, highway mileage, total social consumer goods, regional GDP, etc.) and agricultural output value (total output of food crops) in Jiuquan city kept with large correlation; (3) The STIRPAT model analysis results showed that the main driving forces for the change of cultivated land area in Jiuquan city from 1997 to 2016 were urbanization rate, per capita GDP, and highway mileage. With the continuous increase of the urbanization rate, it had a certain role in promoting the increase of cultivated land area in Jiuquan city; due to the extensive use of extensive development methods for oasis agriculture, the increase in per capita GDP was achieved at the expense of more precious land resources, resulting in the area of cultivated land in the oasis agricultural area had further decreased; the highway mileage was negatively correlated with the area of cultivated land. With the increase of highway mileage, the area of cultivated land declined which was in line with expectations. Summarily, in order to prevent the further reduction of cultivated land resources in the oasis agricultural area, combining with the conditions of natural socio economic conditions in the Oasis area, the following measures are recommended: increasing the urbanization rate, improving transportation infrastructure, raising the level of regional economic development, transforming the mode of agricultural development in the Oasis area, and increasing technical investment.