边疆民族地区牧户贫困脆弱性及其影响因素研究

STUDY ON VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS OF HERDSMEN IN FRONTIER NATIONAL REGIONS

关键词:  边疆民族地区牧户贫困脆弱性影响因素可行能力

Key words:  frontier national regions  herdsmen  vulnerability to poverty  influencing factors  capability

摘要:

［目的］为清晰识别边疆民族地区牧户贫困程度，为后续精准扶贫政策及牧户的可持续发展提供科学的决策依据。［方法］文章以边疆民族地区牧户为研究对象，分别以125美元、2美元和2 300元为贫困线标准，运用VEP估计方法对牧户贫困脆弱性进行测度，并以户主特征、家庭特征、畜牧业生产行为与草原生态政策选择行为4个层面综合构建牧户贫困脆弱性影响的Logit计量模型。［结果］牧户贫困发生率与贫困脆弱性发生率为407%和6347%，其中贫困和非贫困牧户的贫困脆弱性分别为9688%和6206%。户主年龄、家庭规模以及绵羊、牛、奶牛、马和山羊的出栏数量与家庭贫困脆弱性呈现反向显著关系，而教育程度、家庭劳动力数量、出栏羊单位与家庭贫困脆弱性呈现显著正向关系，选择禁牧与草畜平衡牧户的贫困脆弱性更低。［结论］降低以中青年为主的牧户的畜牧业风险，构建中小牧户链接到现代农牧业发展的体制机制与政策体系，鼓励牲畜种类多样化以及持续实施禁牧和草畜平衡的生态政策，是降低牧户贫困脆弱性与提升可行能力的重要路径。

Abstract:

This paper aims to clearly identify the poverty level of herdsmen in frontier ethnic areas, and provide scientific reference for the follow up targeted poverty alleviation policies and sustainable development of herdsmen. It took the herdsmen in frontier ethnic areas as the research object, and used VEP estimation method to measure vulnerability to poverty of the herdsmen with the poverty line criteria of $1.25, $2 and RMB2 300, respectively, and constructed the Logit model about the influence of vulnerability to poverty from the characteristics of the head of household, family characteristics, livestock husbandry and selection behavior of grassland ecological policy. The results showed that the incidence of poverty and vulnerability to poverty of the herdsmen was 4.07% and 63.47%, respectively, and the incidence of vulnerability to poverty for the poor and non poor was 96.88% and 62.06%, respectively. There was significant inversely relationship between vulnerability to poverty and some characteristics, such as age of head of household, family size, slaughter numbers of sheep, cattle, dairy cows, horses, and goats. The vulnerability to poverty had a significant positive relationship with some other factors, such as education level of head of household, sheep units, family labor force. The family would have even less vulnerability to poverty if they selected the policy about no grazing and the balance between grassland and livestock. In summary, reducing the animal husbandry risk of young and middle aged herdsmen, building institutional mechanisms and policy systems linking small and medium sized pastoralists to the development of modern agriculture and animal husbandry, encouraging the diversification of livestock species and continuing to implement the ecological policy of grazing prohibition and grassland and livestock balance. These are important paths to reduce the vulnerability of pastoralists and improve their capability.