基于倾向得分匹配法分析冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF DUAL PURPOSE WINTER WHEAT ON HOUSEHOLDS′ AGRICULTURAL INCOME* ——BASED ON THE PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING METHOD

关键词:  冬小麦粮草兼用农户倾向得分匹配法农业收入影响因素

Key words:  dual purpose winter wheat  household  Propensity Score Matching method  agricultural income  influencing factors

摘要:

［目的］冬小麦粮草兼用在保证籽粒稳产，缓解家畜饲草短缺方面具有重要的作用，但是否具有较好的经济效益仍然具有争论，缺乏准确数据支撑。［方法］文章基于甘肃省庆阳市323个农户的调查数据，利用倾向得分匹配（PSM）方法，研究了冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响，以期能为冬小麦粮草兼用的农业收入效应提供实证支撑。［结果］（1）冬小麦粮草兼用的确存在明显的农业收入效应。（2）倾向得分匹配法在纠正样本异质性偏差后，估计出冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的效应为128%。而使用传统的OLS参数估计方法实际上把冬小麦粮草兼用对农户农业收入的影响低估了约64%。这一结论这为相关部门推广冬小麦粮草兼用技术提供了有力的佐证。（3）冬小麦种植面积，冬小麦产量，养殖数量和玉米种植面积对农户农业收入有显著的正向影响。［结论］基于此，从加快农村土地的流转，扩大农户家庭土地经营规模，引导农户标准化、规模化养殖，重视冬小麦粮草兼用生产模式在陇东黄土高原的推广及应用等方面提出增加当地农户农业收入的政策建议。

Abstract:

Dual purpose winter wheat plays an important role in ensuring grain stability and alleviating the shortages of livestock forage, but whether dual purpose winter wheat has effects on the household′s agricultural income is still lacking an accurate estimate. A field research on dual purpose winter wheat was carried out in Qing yang city of Gansu province, and 323 valid questionnaires were collected from surveyed household. Propensity score matching (PSM) was developed to analyze the influence of dual purpose winter wheat on the households′ agricultural income, in order to provide empirical support to the influence of dual purpose winter wheat on households′ agricultural income. The results were showed as follows. (1) Dual purpose winter wheat had obvious agricultural income effect. (2) After correcting the deviation of sample heterogeneity, the PSM method estimated the effect of dual purpose winter wheat on households′ agricultural income, which was about 12.8%. While the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) parameter estimation method underestimated the impact of dual purpose winter wheat on households′ agricultural income, which was generally underestimated by 6.4%. (3) Factors such as winter wheat planting area, winter wheat yield, livestock number and maize planting area had significant positive impacts on households in involving the dual purpose winter wheat. In conclusion, in order to increase the households′ agricultural income, it suggests that the policy makers should comprehensively consider the situation of accelerating the transfer of rural land, expand households′ management scale, guide large scale standardization of cultural practices and pay attention to the popularization and application of dual purpose winter wheat in the Loess Plateau of East Gansu province etc.