气候变化背景下哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力时空特征分析

SPATIAL TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE PRODUCTIVITY POTENTIAL UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KAZAKHSTAN

关键词:  哈萨克斯坦气候变化气候生产潜力Thortwaite Memorial、Miami模型Mann Kendal检验

Key words:  Kazakhstan  climate change  climate production potential  Thortwaite Memorial and Miami model  Mann Kendal test

摘要:

［目的］研究全球气候变化背景下气候生产潜力的时空分布特征，对于合理利用农业气候资源，促进农业生产力的提高具有重要意义。［方法］选择1901—2000年哈萨克斯坦24个代表气象站点的月平均气温和降水资料，采用Thortwaite Memorial、Miami模型估算气候生产潜力，并运用气候倾向率、M-K检验以及ArcGIS空间插值等方法对气候生产潜力时空分布特征进行分析。［结果］（1）1901—2000年哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力总体表现为增长趋势，不同时段气候生产潜力差异明显，相对于其他研究时段（T1，T3），T2（1936—1970年）时段气候生产潜力及增长速率最大，并且水热匹配状况最好； （2）哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力空间分布地域性明显。YP（降水生产潜力）和YE（蒸散生产潜力）总体表现为自东南向西北递减的趋势，YT（气温生产潜力）表现为自西南向东北递减的趋势，气候生产潜力高值区主要位于天山北麓及东部山区的河谷地带，低值区位于西部和南部荒漠区； （3）气候生产潜力对降水更为敏感，当气温保持不变，降水量增加（减少）10%、20%，YE将增加（减少）96%、1994%。［结论］哈萨克斯坦东部气候生产潜力大于西部，天山北麓及河谷地区气候生产潜力大于平原地区，哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力主要受降水量的制约，未来“暖干型”变化将会使研究区气候生产潜力下降。为提高农业生产潜力，必须加强对农业基础设施的建设和提高水资源的调配能力。

Abstract:

The study of the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of climate production potential under the background of global climate change is of great significance for the rational utilization of agricultural climate resources and the promotion of agricultural productivity. In this study, the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data of 24 meteorological stations in Kazakhstan from 1901 to 2000 were selected. The Thortwaite Memorial and Miami models were used to estimate the climate production potential, and the climate tendency rate, M K test, and ArcGIS interpolation were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of climate production potential. The results showed that: (1) The climate production potential of Kazakhstan in the past 1901-2000 years was overall growth trend, the difference of climate production potential in different periods was obvious. Compared with other research periods (T1，T3), the maximum potential and growth rate of climate production were in T2 (1936-1970 years) period, meanwhile the matching condition of water and heat were the best than other periods. (2) The spatial distribution of climate production potential in Kazakhstan was very obvious, the overall performance of YP (precipitation production potential) and YE (evapotranspiration production potential) showed a decreasing tendency from the southeast to the northwest, and YT (temperature production potential) showed a decreasing trend from south west to northeast. The high value area of the climate productivity potential was mainly located at the river valley of eastern mountains and the north foot of the Tianshan Mountains, and the low value area was located in the western and southern desert areas. (3) The climate production potential was more sensitive to precipitation with global climate changes. When the temperature remained unchanged, precipitation increased (decreased) by 10% and 20%, and YE would increase (decrease) by 9.6% and 19.94%.In summary, the climate production potential in eastern Kazakhstan is greater than that in the western, and the climate production potential in the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains and the river valley area is greater than that in the plain area. Our results show that the climate production potential of Kazakhstan is mainly restricted by precipitation. The climate of "warm dry" change in the future will reduce the climate production potential of the study area. To cope with the impact of climate change on Kazakhstan′s climate production and improve the agricultural productivity potential, the Kazakhstan government must strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure and improve the allocation capacity of water resources.