湖北省夏玉米适播期分析

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF OPTIMUM SEEDING TIME OF SUMMER MAIZE IN HUBEI

关键词:  适播期气候适宜度风险夏玉米湖北省

Key words:  optimum seeding date  climate suitability  risk  summer maize  Hubei

摘要:

［目的］为因地制宜发展夏玉米生产，充分利用当地气候资源特点，尽量避免由于播种期不当导致的产量损失，为湖北省夏玉米种植管理提供理论依据。［方法］利用1981—2010年湖北省76个气象台站逐日气象观测资料和夏玉米历年生育期观测资料，借鉴国内外有关玉米气候适宜度模型相关研究，对参数进行本地化计算，构建气候适宜度模型。根据历年夏玉米播种情况及茬口安排，将夏玉米初播期定为5月11日，以7d为步长计算湖北省76个台站7个不同播期的气候适宜度，分析湖北省夏玉米不同播期温度、降水、日照适宜度及综合气候适宜度时空变化，并结合夏玉米抽雄期高温热害和拔节—抽雄期干旱指标统计不同播期灾害风险，综合确定夏玉米适宜播期。［结果］从气候资源角度来看，鄂西北大部、江汉平原及鄂东北西北部气候条件比较适宜夏玉米生长发育； 从气象灾害风险角度来看，湖北省夏玉米播种时间应避开5月中旬，在6月15—22日播种可有效避免夏玉米抽雄吐丝期高温热害和干旱的发生。［结论］综合分析得出中东部大部最适宜播期在6月15—22日，其他大部最适宜播期在5月25—6月8日。

Abstract:

This research aims to develop summer maize production according to local conditions, make full use of local climatic resources, avoid yield loss due to improper sowing period, and provide theoretical basis for summer maize planting management in Hubei province. Using daily meteorological observations from 76 meteorological stations in Hubei province from 1981 to 2010 and the annual fertility observations of summer maize, localized parameters were calculated and climate suitability models were constructed with reference to relevant studies on maize suitability models at home and abroad. According to the summer corn sowing situation and stubble arrangement, the first summer corn sowing period was set on May 11, and the suitability of seven different sowing periods was calculated for 76 stations in Hubei province using seven days as the step length. The temporal and spatial changes of temperature, precipitation, sunshine suitability and the comprehensive suitability of summer corn in Hubei province were analyzed. From the perspective of climatic resources, most of northwestern Hubei, the Jianghan Plain and the northwest of the northeastern Hubei climatic conditions are more suitable for summer corn growth and development; from the perspective of meteorological disaster risk, Hubei summer corn sowing time should be avoided in mid May, sowing in June 15-22 can be effectively avoided in the summer corn pumping and spitting period of high temperature heat damage and drought occurred. A comprehensive analysis concludes that most of the suitable sowing period in the most area of middle and eastern in Hubei is from June 15 to June 22, and is from May 25 to June 8 in most of other areas.