我国稻谷口粮消费特征及其趋势预测

EDIBLE RICE CONSUMPTION CHARACTERUSTICS AND TREND PREDICTION IN CHINA

关键词:  稻谷口粮消费特征趋势预测2020年2030年

Key words:  edible rice  consumption characteristics  trend prediction  2020  2030

摘要:

［目的］稻谷是我国居民消费的第一大主粮，占到居民口粮消费60%，是我国最重要的粮食产品，研究稻谷口粮消费趋势对于保证粮食安全、指导粮食生产具有重要意义。［方法］基于对稻谷口粮总体以及分品种消费特征分析，进行人均消费水平预测，运用时间趋势外推法，结合对我国人口总数、人口结构的判断，研究测算2020年、2030年我国稻谷口粮消费总量、产量需求量和分品种消费结构。［结果］预测结果表明， 2020年、2030年稻谷口粮宏观消费量为151亿、142亿t，产量需求为162亿、153亿t，与2016年相比，分别下降55%、108%。其中粳稻口粮宏观消费量为063亿、064亿t，产量需求为067亿、068亿t。［结论］因此在未来稻谷生产方面，应根据国内实际需求，适当缩小稻谷种植面积，扩大粳稻种植比例； 促进优质水稻生产，满足不断升级的消费需求； 应提高稻谷收割、加工技术，改善稻谷储存条件，完善现代化物流运输体系，以减少稻谷产后损耗。

Abstract:

Rice is China′s most important staple food, accounting for 60% of total ration consumption among the nation′s residents. It is the most significant food product in China. Studying the trend of rice ration consumption is vital in ensuring food security and guiding food production. The per capital consumption level of rice was measured based on the analysis of the overall consumption characteristics of edible rice as well as the consumption characteristics of different varieties. Subsequently, this information was combined with statistical data regarding China′s total population and population structure to forecast the total edible rice consumption and production demand of China in the years 2020 and 2030. Moreover, the consumption structure of the sub categories was also measured. Results showed that the macro consumption of edible rice in the years 2020 and 2030 would be 151 million tons and 142 million tons, respectively. Production demand would be 162 million tons and 153 million tons, respectively, which was 5.5% and 10.8% lower than that of 2016. The macro consumption of Japonica edible rice would be 63 million tons and 64 million tons, while production demand would be 67 million tons and 68 million tons, respectively. Therefore, in future rice production, rice planting areas should be appropriately reduced in accordance to actual domestic demand. The proportion of Japonica rice planting should be expanded, and high quality rice production should be promoted to meet escalating consumer demand. It is important to improve rice harvesting and processing technologies and storage conditions as well as complete modern logistics transportation system to reduce losses in rice after harvest.