经济新常态下创新驱动型现代低碳农业发展研究*——以成都平原地区为例

RESEARCH ON INNOVATION DRIVEN MODERN LOW CARBON AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE NEW NORMAL ECONOMY*——TAKING CHENGDU PLAIN AREA AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  低碳农业现代政策碳排放核算回归分析

Key words:  low carbon agriculture  modern  policy  carbon emission accounting  regression analysis

摘要:

［目的］在全球气候变暖，资源枯竭的背景下，发展低碳农业是农业可持续发展的迫切需求。文章通过分别计算种植业、畜牧业、农业生产用具碳排放量得出成都市近年来碳排放情况，为成都平原地区农业低碳经济发展提供研究与实践基础。［方法］选取2004—2015年科技发展财政投入数据与农业碳排放量，运用回归模型验证农业科技投入与农业碳排放量的关系，探究农业科技投入对农业减排的促进作用。［结果］（1）成都市的种植业碳排放在40年整体呈下降趋势，主要原因是种植面积的减少； （2）化肥碳排放量在1999—2015年整体呈下降趋势，减排效果较为明显，农业灌溉碳排放量整体平稳下降而减少的势头还未放缓，其在未来仍具有较大的减排潜力； （3）农业机械的碳排放最小也最为稳定， 16年来一直保持在16万t左右，碳排放强度也在0017 t/hm2上下，可见成都市农业在21世纪初到目前的农业机械使用量基本稳定，对其依赖性较弱，有进一步减排的可能。（4）技术因素对减少农业碳排放具有驱动作用，并且随着技术资金投入的增加，减排工作会进入到“瓶颈”，碳排放量减少的速度将逐渐放缓。［结论］通过理论分析与案例研究，发现技术、制度、文化与农业碳排放量的内在逻辑关系，为促进低碳农业发展，应从制度、技术、文化3个方面推动创新。

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming and resource depletion, low carbon agricultural development become an urgent need for sustainable agricultural development. We calculated the carbon emissions from painting, animal husbandry and agricultural production equipment in the past decade to provide research and practice basis for the development of low carbon economy in Chengdu plain. Based on the data of financial input of agricultural technology and agricultural carbon emission from 2004 to 2015, we adopted the regression model to verify the relationship between agricultural carbon emission and financial input in agricultural technology, and explored the role of technology input in agriculture carbon emission reduction. The results were showed as follows. (1) The carbon emissions of crop farming sector were decreasing in the past four decades, and decreased planting area was the main reason for this trend. (2) The carbon emissions of fertilizers showed a downward trend from 1999 to 2015, and the carbon emission reduction effect was also obvious. The overall carbon emission of agricultural irrigation had declined steadily, yet the tendency of the reduction had not slowed down. There was still a great potential for irrigation oriented emissions reduction in the future. (3) Emission quantity from agricultural machinery was the smallest among all factors, and it was also the most stable factor which affecting agricultural carbon emissions. It had been maintained at about 16,000 tons per year in the past 16 years, and the carbon emission intensity maintained around 0.017 t/hm2 per year. This showed that the amount of agricultural machinery used in Chengdu had not changed much in the past decade, and agriculture in Chengdu had week reliance on machinery. Carbon emission reduction from this aspect had a potential possibility. (4) Agricultural technology development played an important role in reducing agricultural carbon emissions, along with the increased investment in agricultural technology, carbon emission reduction would enter a "bottleneck" period and the rate of reduction would gradually slow down. Through theoretical analysis and case studies, we discover the internal logical relationship between technology, institution, culture and agricultural carbon emissions. In order to promote the development of low carbon agriculture, we should take into account innovation of institution, technology and culture.