基于生态足迹模型的广西农业可持续发展评价

EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN GUANGXI BASED ON ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT MODEL

关键词:  生态足迹生态承载力生态足迹模型农业广西

Key words:  ecological footprint  ecological carrying capacity  ecological footprint model  agriculture  Guangxi

摘要:

［目的］目前将生态足迹模型应用于农业领域的研究较少，文章将其应用于广西农业可持续发展能力评价中，以期对广西农业发展提供借鉴。［方法］将生态足迹模型应用于农业领域生态可持续发展分析，将广西农业生物生产性土地面积划分为耕地、林地、草地、和水域用地，以2007—2016年广西农业数据为依据，分别计算其农产品、林产品、水产品及畜牧产品人均生态足迹及承载力。［结果］（1）2007—2016年广西耕地和林地表现为生态盈余，草地和水域表现为生态赤字； （2）广西耕地、林地、草地和水域人均生态承载力总体上表现为下降趋势，而生态足迹持续上升，耕地和林地生态盈余能力逐渐减弱，可持续发展能力不容乐观； 草地和水域生态赤字现象逐年加剧，可持续发展能力较差。［结论］目前广西农业生态承载力已经或将要无法满足人们对农产品的需求，广西农业可持续发展状况不容乐观，政府给予一定关注并采取相应措施十分必要。

Abstract:

The application of the ecological footprint model in the context of agricultural settings remains an underexplored research field. In the present study, we made an attempt of adapting the ecological footprint model for evaluating the capacity in the development of sustainable agriculture in Guangxi, with an aim of providing reference for future agricultural development in Guangxi. For this purpose, the ecological footprint model was used to analyze ecological sustainability of agriculture by dividing the agricultural bio productive land area in Guangxi into cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water land, and performing calculation of per capita ecological footprint and carrying capacity for each land type based on the agricultural data of Guangxi from 2007 to 2016. The results revealed an ecological surplus for cultivated land and forestland, but ecological deficit for grassland and water land in Guangxi during the study period. We observed a downward trend in per capita ecological carrying capacity for all the four land types, and a continuously increasing trend in ecological footprint. For cultivated land and forest land, ecological surplus exhibited a gradual weakening trend, indicating that capacity for sustainable development for these two land types was not optimistic. For grassland and water land, ecological deficit was becoming increasingly severe, indicating that the capacity for sustainable development was low for these two land types. Given these results, we conclude that the ecological carrying capacity of Guangxi agriculture is and will be in a position of not being able to meet people′s demand for agricultural products. The future of the sustainable development of agriculture in Guangxi is not optimistic. Therefore, we stress the necessity for the government to pay close attention to this matter and when necessary to implement interventions.