基于SFA模型的河南省粮食产量时空变化及投入要素影响

ANALYSIS OF SPATIO TEMPORAL CHANGES OF GRAIN YIELD IN HENAN PROVINCE BASED ON SFA MODEL

关键词:  粮食产量时空变化随机前沿生产函数模型脱钩分析投入要素分析

Key words:  grain production  spatio temporal change  stochastic frontier production function model  decoupling analysis  input factor analysis

摘要:

［目的］粮食问题影响着一个国家的国民经济发展和人民生产、生活，农业在整个社会生产活动中占有重要地位，河南省是全国农业大省，对河南省粮食产量进行分析具有重要的现实意义。［方法］以2005—2015年河南省各县粮食产量和投入要素为研究对象，将研究数据面板化，利用线性相关、随机前沿生产函数模型、脱钩分析等方法，运用ArcGIS 101、Eviews 80和SPSS 190等软件，对河南省各县粮食产量时空变化、投入要素影响程度和脱钩效应进行分析。［结果］模型运算结果表明文章选用模型效果较好，能够反映粮食产量的时空变化以及其与投入要素之间的关系，且符合河南省粮食产量实际情况。研究结果表明：（1）从时间上来看， 2005—2015年河南省粮食产量总体呈线性上升趋势； （2）从空间上来看，河南省中部、北部、东部和南部粮食产量较高，西部受地势因素影响粮食产量较低； （3）粮食产量与化肥施用折纯量、粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农药施用量、农业机械总动力和乡村农业人口呈正相关关系，与农村用电量呈负相关关系； （4）化肥施用折纯量、农村用电量、农药施用量存在脱钩效应，粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农业机械总动力不存在脱钩效应。［结论］应保持目前粮食播种面积不变，提高农业机械总动力，突出投入要素的影响，同时对河南省各县进行区域功能定位。

Abstract:

The grain problem affects the development of the national economy, production and life. Agriculture occupies an important position in the entire social production activities. Henan province is a major agricultural province in our country, and it is of great practical significance to analyze the grain output of Henan province. Taking the grain output and input factors of each county in Henan province from 2005 to 2015 as the research object, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of grain output, the influence degree of input factors and the decoupling effect of various counties in Henan province by using linear correlation, stochastic frontier production function model, decoupling analysis and other methods through ArcGIS 10.1, Eviews 8.0 and SPSS 19.0 software. The results of model calculation showed that the model selected in this study had a good effect. It could reflect the temporal and spatial variation of grain output and the relationship between the model and input factors, and it conformed to the actual situation of grain output in Henan province. The results were showed as follows. (1) In terms of time, the grain output of Henan Province from 2005 to 2015 showed a linear upward trend; (2) From a spatial perspective, the grain yield in the central, northern, eastern and southern parts of Henan was relatively high, the food production in the western region affected by the terrain factors was low; (3) Grain yield was positively correlated with fertilizer application, grain sowing area, per capita net income of farmers, pesticide application amount, total power of agricultural machinery and rural agricultural population, and negatively correlated with rural electricity consumption; (4) The decoupling effect existed in fertilizer application, rural electricity consumption, pesticide application and rural agricultural population. There was no decoupling effect in grain sowing area, per capita net income of farmers and total power of agricultural machinery. In summary, to ensure grain supply, it is necessary to keep the current grain planting area, improve the total power of agricultural machinery, highlight the impact of input factors, and locate the regional function of each county in Henan province.