1990—2015年海河流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动机制研究

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF LAND USE IN HAIHE RIVER BASIN FROM 1990 TO 2015*

关键词:  海河流域土地利用驱动力土地利用转移矩阵主成分分析

Key words:  Haihe River Basin  land use  driving force  land use transition matrix  principal component analysis

摘要:

［目的］海河流域是我国社会经济发展最为活跃地区之一，在国家经济发展中具有重要战略地位。通过研究海河流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动机制，为优化海河流域土地利用规划和土地资源管理提供科学依据。［方法］利用ArcGIS和SPSS软件等工具，通过空间分析、相关分析和主成分分析等方法，应用土地利用转移矩阵并结合经济社会和自然驱动因子，探索了1990—2015年海河流域土地利用时空变化特征和驱动机制。［结果］（1）1990—2015年海河流域的主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地、草地，其中建设用地面积变化最为显著，变化率达到3683%； 面积占有率由667%上升到913%。（2）1990—2000年林地、草地、建设用地、未利用地、耕地变化显著， 2000年之后变化幅度减小。不同时间段内，海河流域各种土地利用变化速度基本上具有一致性。（3）从空间上看，北京市的建设用地由中心向外扩张，渤海湾沿岸建设用地扩张明显。草地、未利用土地和耕地面积均呈下降趋势，其中未利用地减少幅度最大，面积下降了1607%。（4）1990—2015年耕地是转出面积最多的土地利用类型，主要转出为建设用地、林地。（5）从驱动机制来看，导致海河流域土地利用方式和目的变化的主要驱动因素为社会经济发展（GDP）、人口增长，其次为气候变化，主要是降水和温度的变化。［结论］1990—2015年该流域社会经济快速发展和城市化进程导致了土地利用类型的显著变化。国家施行的经济、生态政策对海河流域土地利用变化造成一定影响。该时期土地利用变化格局是人类活动和气候变化共同影响的结果。

Abstract:

As one of the most active areas with rapidly socioeconomic development in China, the Haihe River Basin plays a strategic role in the national economic development. By studying land use change characteristics and driving forces, the results are in high reference value to optimize Haihe River Basin′s land use structure and provide scientific evidence for management. Based on ArcGIS and SPSS software, the spatial temporal characteristics of land use variability and driving mechanism in Haihe River Basin from 1990 to 2015 were revealed by employing spatial analysis, correlation analysis, principal component analysis methods and the land use transfer matrix combining with the economic, social and natural driving factors.The results showed that the main land use types were cultivated land, forest land and grass land from 1990 to 2015. Construction land change was the most significant, with a change rate of 36.83%. The percentage of construction land area increased from 6.67% to 9.13%. From 1990 to 2000, forest land, grassland, construction land, unused land and cultivated land changed significantly while the change range decreased after 2000. In different periods, the speed of various land use changes in Haihe River basin was basically consistent. The construction land of Beijing expanded outward from the center, and the construction land along the Bohai Bay coast also expanded obviously. Grassland, forest land, unused land and cultivated land showed a downward trend, among which the unused land decreased the most, with the area decreased by 16.07%. From 1990 to 2015, cultivated land was the type of land with the largest area transferred and the main directions were construction land and forest land. The main driving factors leading to changes in land use patterns and purposes in the Haihe River Basin were socioeconomic development (GDP) and population growth, followed by climate change, mainly precipitation and temperature changes. From 1990 to 2015, the socio economic development and urbanization in the basin lead to significant changes in land use. The economic and ecological policies implemented by the state also have a certain impact on land use change in the Haihe River Basin. The pattern of land use change in this period is the common effect of human activities and climate changes.