北疆甜菜生育期农业气候资源时空变化特征

SPATIO TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF AGROCLIMATIC RESOURCES IN SUGARBEET GROWING SEASON IN NORTHERN XINJIANG

关键词:  农业气候资源生育期时空分布突变检验周期变化

Key words:  agricultural climatic resources  growth period  temporal and spatial distribution  mutation test  periodic change

摘要:

［目的］探究北疆甜菜生育期农业气候资源变化特征，为气候变化对农业影响的深入研究和适应对策的制定提供依据。［方法］采用1961—2016年逐日气象观测资料，运用趋势分析法、ArcGIS空间插值法、小波分析法、Mann Kendall检验法。［结果］1961—2016年北疆甜菜生育期平均气温、降水量、≥10℃积温均呈极显著上升趋势，参考作物蒸散量和平均风速均呈极显著下降趋势； 近56年北疆甜菜生长季各气候资源在不同时段（1961—1980年、1980—2000年、2000—2016年）呈现出不同的变化趋势，其中平均气温、降水量和≥10℃积温变化特征为“低—中—高”，参考作物蒸散量和平均风速变化特征为“高—中—低”，日照时数变化特征为“高—低—高”，相对湿度变化相对平稳。空间分布上，平均气温和≥10℃积温总体呈“中部偏高，东北和西南偏低”的特点，降水量、相对湿度和参考作物蒸散量总体呈“西南高、东北低”的特点，日照时数总体呈“东北高、西南低”的特点，平均风速总体呈“中部偏低，西北和东南偏高”的特点； 周期变化特征显示：各气候资源均存在30年左右主周期和18年左右次周期，并且平均气温和降水量周期性较强，日照时数和相对湿度周期性较弱； 突变结果显示：甜菜生育期北疆各气候资源发生突变的站点数和突变发生时间均存在差异性。［结论］通过北疆气候变化对甜菜生育期农业气候资源的影响研究，进一步认识气候变化规律，加强北疆甜菜应对气候变化的能力，促进甜菜产业发展。

Abstract:

Based on the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2016, this research is intended to study the characteristics of agroclimatic resource changes during the growth period of sugarbeet in northern Xinjiang, so as to provide the basis for the in depth study of the impact of climate change on agriculture and the formulation of adaptation strategies by using the trend analysis method, ArcGIS space interpolation, wavelet analysis method, and Mann Kendall test. The results were showed as follows. From 1961 to 2016, the average temperature, precipitation and accumulated temperature greater than 10 ℃ were increased significantly while the reference crop evapotranspiration and average wind speed exhibited a very significant decreasing trend during the growth period of Sugarbeet in Northern Xinjiang. During the different timeline periods of past 56 years, from 1961 to 1980, from 1980 to 2000, and from 2000 to 2016, the climatic resources of sugarbeet growing period, in northern Xinjiang, were significantly varied. The variation characteristics of average temperature, precipitation and accumulated temperature greater than 10 ℃ were "low medium high", exhibiting a gradually increasing trend, and the variation characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration and average wind speed were "high medium low", showing a gradually decreasing trend, and sunshine duration exhibited a trend of increasing decreasing and increasing; and the variation of relative humidity was relatively stable during sugarbeet growing season in different timeline periods. In terms of spatial distribution, the average temperature and accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃ were generally characterized as "high in the middle and low in the northeast and southwest"; the precipitation, relative humidity and reference crop evapotranspiration were generally characterized as "high in the southwest and low in the northeast"; the sunshine duration was generally characterized as "high in the northeast and low in the southwest"; and the average wind speed was generally characterized as "low in the middle, high in the northwest and southeast. Furthermore, there were a 30 year main cycle and a 18 year secondary cycle in each climate resource, and the periodicity of average temperature and precipitation was relatively strong, and the periodicity of sunshine duration and relative humidity was relatively weak; the mutation results showed that there were differences in the number of mutation sites and the time of mutation in each climate resource in northern Xinjiang during the growing season of sugar beet. Based on the results of the influence of climate change on agroclimatic resources of sugarbeet growth period in Northern Xinjiang, we will have a furhter understanding the law of climate change, strengthen the adaptability of sugar beet against climate change, and promote the development of sugar beet industry.