海南岛乡镇社会经济时空变化及驱动因素分析

THE ANALYSIS ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGE AND DRIVING FACTORS OF TOWNSHIPS′ SOCIAL ECONOMY IN HAINAN ISLAND

关键词:  乡镇社会经济时空变化驱动因素熵值法空间数据探索分析

Key words:  townships′ social economy  spatial and temporal change  driving factors  entropy  exploratory spatial data analysis

摘要:

［目的］海南岛乡镇社会经济发展较不均衡，分析其时空变化特征与驱动因素，为海南省制定科学合理的乡镇规划和政策提供参考。［方法］运用熵值法和空间数据探索分析方法，分析海南岛195个乡镇的社会经济发展水平的空间分异、全局趋势、空间相关特征，以及社会经济差异的驱动因素。［结果］（1）高水平乡镇主要位于东部和西部市县，数量逐年增多，增多的乡镇主要位于中部。低水平乡镇主要位于中部市县，数量逐渐减少，减少的乡镇主要位于中部。（2）海南岛乡镇社会经济发展水平东部高于西部，北部高于南部，北部逐渐上升略超东部，社会经济整体水平逐渐提高，差异逐渐缩小。（3）环岛乡镇热点区总体比较稳定，西部沿海热点区有所增加，热点显著区多分布于城关镇与沿海乡镇。（4）海南岛乡镇社会经济差异的驱动因素主要有区位条件、宏观政策和社会经济基础。［结论］应针对社会经济发展水平较低和异常发展的乡镇，采取有效措施，缩小乡镇间发展差距，促进海南岛乡镇社会经济协调发展。

Abstract:

The social economy development of township in Hainan Island is relatively uneven. The characteristics of spatial and temporal changes and driving factors are analyzed to provide references for Hainan Province to formulate scientific and rational township planning and policies. Based on the entropy and exploratory spatial data analysis methods, the spatial differentiation, global trends, spatial correlation characteristics and different driving factors of the social economy development level of 195 townships in Hainan Island were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) High level townships were mostly distributed in the eastern and western part of Hainan Island, and the number increased every year, with the largest increase in the central part. Low level townships were mainly located in the central part, and the number decreased gradually, with the largest decreasing in the central part. (2) The social economy development level of eastern townships was higher than that of the west; the development level of the north was higher than that of the south; and the north gradually rose to be slightly above the east. The overall level of the social economy was gradually increasing and the difference was gradually diminishing. (3) The hot spots of townships were generally stable, and increased along the western coast. The hot spots were mostly distributed in Chengguan town and coastal townships. (4) The driving factors of social economy differences of townships in Hainan Island mainly included location conditions, macro policies and social and economic foundations. Effective measures should be taken for townships with low social economy development level and abnormal development to reduce the development gap among them, so as to promote the coordinated development of social economy in Hainan Island.