基于ESDA GWR的人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调度时空分异及影响因素研究*——以中原城市群为例

ANALYSIS ON SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION AND INFLUENCE FACTORS OF COORDINATION DEGREE BETWEEN POPULATION URBANIZATION AND LAND URBANIZATION BASED ON ESDA GWR*——A CASE STUDY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS URBAN AGGLOMERATION

关键词:  城镇化协调发展空间差异地理加权回归中原城市群

Key words:  urbanization  coordinated development  spatial disparity  GWR  Central Plains urban agglomeration

摘要:

［目的］以中原城市群30个地市为研究对象，构建由经济、社会、投入、产出等维度组成的评价指标体系，探索人口—土地城镇化的耦合协调分异及影响因素，并提出适合区域实际的差别化管理政策，为扭转区域协调发展水平不平衡现状提供参考。［方法］采用ESDA、GWR、热点分析等空间分析方法，对1996年、2006年和2016年中原城市群30个地级单元两化协调发展的时空分异格局、空间相关性、演变趋势和影响因素进行分析。［结果］3年城镇化协调水平存在显著的空间分异，发展度逐步向南呈好转态势、耦合度普遍较高，呈扩散趋势，协调度差异程度日趋减小； 城镇化质量和数量关系可划分为7种类型，形成以基本协调型为主，轻度超前型为辅的空间格局； 城镇化协调度空间聚效应明显； 动力因子对各地区协调度的影响具有明显的空间异质性，经济因子是主要影响因素，从东北到西南作用逐步增大，外来因子不够稳定，社会因子从西向北高值集聚区不断扩大。［结论］未来应抓住政策优势，打破地域隔阂，走精细化发展道路，缓解人地矛盾； 依托区域优势，优化产业结构，提升经济因子驱动，促进经济均等化、一体化发展，减少核心城市对周围地市的虹吸效应，提高城镇化协调发展水平。

Abstract:

Taking 30 cities of Central Plains urban agglomeration as research objects, this paper explores the cooperation and differentiation of the population land urbanization and its influencing factors by constructing an evaluation index system that consist of economic, social, input and output dimensions. It proposes differentiated management policies based on regional reality, which can provide reference for reversing the status quo of the imbalanced regional coordinated development. The ESDA, GWR, hot spot analysis, and other spatial analysis methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution pattern, spatial correlation, evolution trend and influencing factors of the coordinated development of the population urbanization and land urbanization in 30 prefecture level units in Central Plains urban agglomeration in 1996, 2006 and 2016. The results showed that the significant spatial differences existed in the level of urbanization coordination in the past three years, the degree of development gradually became better off southward, the coupling degree was generally higher and demonstrated a diffusive trend, and the differences in the coordinate degree illustrated a shrinking trend; the relationship between quality and quantity of urbanization could be divided into seven types, forming a spatial pattern, which the basic coordination constructed the main type and slightly advanced type as the supplement; the spatial agglomeration effect of urbanization coordination degree was obvious; the influence of dynamic factors on the coordination degree of various regions had obvious spatial heterogeneity, and economic factors were the main influencing factors. From northeast to southwest, the role of external factors was unstable, social factors were gradually shifting from west to north, and high value agglomeration areas were expanding. It is concluded that in the future, we should seize the policy advantages, break the regional barriers, take the refined development road, alleviate the contradiction between people and land; rely on regional advantages, optimize industrial structure, promote the drive of economic factors, promote economic equalization and integration, reduce the siphon effect of core cities on surrounding cities, and improve the level of coordinated development of urbanization.