我国对“一带一路”国家的农产品出口研究*——基于随机前沿贸易引力模型的实证分析

ANALYZING THE EXPORT OF CHINESE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TO THE BELT AND ROAD COUNTRIES USING STOCHASTIC FRONTIER TRADE GRAVITY MODEL

关键词:  “一带一路”国家农产品出口贸易随机前沿贸易引力模型出口贸易效率出口贸易潜力

Key words:  the Belt and Road countries  agricultural export  stochastic frontier trade gravity model  export efficiency  export potential

摘要:

［目的］为了测算我国对“一带一路”国家出口农产品的贸易规模和贸易效率，［方法］文章使用随机前沿贸易引力模型的研究方法，对经济规模因素、人口因素、地理因素等经典变量进行实证分析，并且提取出口贸易效率项来分析制度性因素的影响。［结果］研究结果表明，经济规模、人口规模等社会因素能够正向促进我国对“一带一路”沿线国家的农产品出口规模，而地理距离增加在一定程度上阻碍我国农产品的出口贸易增长。此外，制度性因素在出口贸易效率方面发挥着重大作用，关税水平与贸易效率呈现负相关关系，而贸易促进指数ETI和WTO等制度因素显著提高我国的农产品出口贸易效率。［结论］该文通过测算农产品出口贸易效率可发现我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的农产品贸易存在着巨大的贸易潜力，并且分别在国家层面和区域层面针对研究结果进行分析，发现我国与东南亚的国家贸易效率较高，与印度、俄罗斯等国家存在较大贸易潜力，同时不同区域的贸易效率存在明显的差异性。根据研究结论，该文提出如下建议：促进农业产业结构调整； 加强我国的贸易交通基础设施建设； 改善我国的对外贸易服务条件； 降低我国的市场准入难度。

Abstract:

With the implementation of the Belt and Road strategy, the total export volume of China′s agricultural products to the countries along the routes keeps rising. To further understand the influencing factors of volume and efficiency of China′s agricultural products export to the Belt and Road countries, we used Stochastic Frontier Trade Gravity Model to empirically assess variables such as economic scale factors, population factors and geographical factors. In addition, we also analyzed the effect of institutional factors on trade efficiency. The research results showed that the economic scale, population size and other social factors of the Belt and Road countries were positively related to the volume of China′s agricultural products export to these countries; the geographical distance had a negative effect on the export volume: the further away of a country, the lower volume of export. In addition, the institutional factors played the significant role in export trade efficiency: there was a negative correlation between tariff level and trade efficiency; ETI and WTO had the significantly positive impact on China′s agricultural exports trade efficiency. By analyzing the export trade efficiency of agricultural products, it indicates that there is considerable untapped trade potential between China and the Belt and Road countries. China′s export trade efficiencies to southeast Asian countries are relatively high, and China has great trade potential with India and Russia. Clearly, there is a disparity of trade efficiencies among different regions. Based on these results, the following policy recommendations to further foster the agricultural trade with the Belt and Road countries are put forward. The Chinese government should promote agricultural industrial structural adjustment, further improve transportation and other infrastructures, improve China′s services for foreign trade, and lower barriers to entry China′s market.