草原牧区牧户贷款偿还率的影响因素研究*——源于内蒙古的调研样本

FACTORS AFFECTING THE REPAYMENT RATE OF HERDSMEN′S LOANS IN PASTORAL GRASSLAND AREAS*——FROM THE SURVEY SAMPLES OF INNER MONGOLIA

关键词:  草原牧区内蒙古贷款偿还率Tobit模型影响因素

Key words:  grassland pastoral area  Inner Mongolia  loan repayment rate  Tobit model  influencing factors

摘要:

［目的］立足于草原牧区的贷款现状，以家庭为单位，探究牧户贷款偿还率的影响因素，为如何提高牧户贷款偿还率提供一些思考和建议。［方法］文章基于内蒙古草原牧区的调研数据，采用双截尾Tobit模型，分析牧户贷款偿还率的影响因素。［结果］牧户家庭人口数、距主干道路距离、年度支出、贷款金额和贷款利率因素与牧户贷款偿还率具有显著的负相关； 牧户拥有的草场面积、活羊价值、活牛价值和年度收入因素与牧户贷款偿还率正相关； 而户主的年龄、性别、文化水平、机械设备价值和房屋价值因素对牧户贷款偿还率影响不显著。［结论］为提升牧户贷款偿还率，提出如下建议：倡导牧户有计划地合理安排生产性支出和生活性支出，在生产与消费之间、生活与发展之间建立良性循环关系； 多举措降低贷款利率，减轻牧户部分利息负担； 在发挥传统牧业优势的同时，创造现代牧业优势并提高市场份额，发挥传统优质产品在现代经济中的溢出效应以提升牧户收入。

Abstract:

This study explores the factors currently influencing the loan repayment rate of herdsmen in the pastoral grassland areas and provides suggestions to improve these rates. Based on survey data from Inner Mongolia, the research used a double limit Tobit model to analyze the factors affecting the loan repayment rate of these herdsmen. Family size, distance from a main road, annual expenditure, loan amount, and loan interest rate were all significantly negatively correlated with the loan repayment rate, while the pasture area owned, value of the sheep, value of the cattle, and annual income were positively correlated with the loan repayment rate. The age, gender, and cultural level of the household head and the value of the mechanical equipment and house had no significant impact on the repayment rate. To improve the loan repayment rate of the herdsmen, the following suggestions are proposed: advocating for herdsmen to arrange production expenditure and living expenditure in a planned and reasoned way to establish a virtuous circle between production, consumption, survival, and development; taking various measures to reduce the loan interest rate and thus reduce the interest burden on herdsmen repaying loans; and protecting and giving full play to the advantages of traditional animal husbandry while creating excellent modern animal husbandry. The market share should be increased, and the spillover effect of traditional high quality products in the modern economy should be brought into play to enhance the herdsmen′s income.