“乡村振兴”背景下贵州省农村居民消费结构研究*——基于LA-AIDS模型的实证分析

STUDY ON RURAL RESIDENTS CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE OF GUIZHOU PROVINCE IN THE CONTEXT OF RURAL REVITALIZATION*——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE LA AIDS MODEL

关键词:  乡村振兴贵州农村居民消费结构LA-AIDS模型

Key words:  rural revitalization  Guizhou  rural residents  consumption structure  LA AIDS model

摘要:

［目的］优化农村消费结构，进一步释放农村消费潜能以发挥消费对经济增长的基础性作用，对乡村振兴战略深入推进和缩小地区发展差距等方面均有重要意义，在对贵州省农村居民消费结构变化趋势特征分析基础上，实证研究其农村居民消费结构，并提出相关政策建议。［方法］文章基于1978—2016年贵州省农村居民8类产品消费额及消费价格指数，运用LA-AIDS模型，采用ITSUR估计法和希克斯弹性测算方法对贵州省农村居民消费结构进行分析。［结果］现阶段，贵州省农村居民消费结构由生存型向发展型和享受型过渡，但生存型占比仍较高； 除食品外，各类消费品均富有收入弹性，其中以交通和通讯及文教娱乐这2类最为突出，系数值分别达1897和1571； 食品、衣着、居住、家庭设备和医疗保健5类消费品为生活必需品，交通和通讯及文教娱乐这2类为奢侈品； 食品、文教娱乐和居住这3类消费品价格变化对其他商品消费量影响较大，其中食品、文教娱乐更多存在替代效应，而居住则更多存在挤出效应。［结论］贵州省农村居民消费结构有待进一步优化，需紧紧围绕提高农村居民收入水平这一关键，多措施并举加以促进。

Abstract:

Optimizing rural consumption structure, releasing rural consumption potential further that give play to the basic role of consumption in economic growth, which exerts great significance to promote and narrow the regional development gap in the rural revitalization strategy. The related policies are given based on the analysis of the variation tendency feature of rural residents′ consumption structure in Guizhou province. Based on the LA AIDS model, the consumption structure of rural residents in Guizhou province was analyzed by application of ITSUR estimation and the Hicks elastic calculation method. The results were showed as followed. At present, the consumption structure of rural residents had varied from survival type to development type as well as enjoyment type. However, the proportion of survival type was rather higher than others. All kinds of consumer goods were rich in income elasticity except food category, in which traffic and communication, education and entertainment were the two most prominent categories. The coefficient values was 1.897 and 1.571，respectively. 5 sorts of consumer goods were the necessities of daily life which including the food consumption goods, clothing consumption goods, housing consumption goods, household equipment consumption goods and health care consumption goods. Meanwhile, the transportation and communications consumption goods, cultural and educational entertainment consumption goods were luxury goods. The price changes of food consumption goods, cultural and educational entertainment consumption goods and housing consumption goods had a great impact on the consumption of other commodities. Among them, there were more substitution effects in food consumption goods, cultural and educational entertainment consumption goods, while housing consumption goods had more crowding out effect. It shows that the income level of the residents need a further improvement and the consumption structure needs to be further optimized.