我国牛肉供需及国际竞争力研究

RESEARCH ON CHINA′S BEEF SUPPLY, DEMAND AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS*

关键词:  牛肉生产消费贸易国际竞争力

Key words:  beef  production  consumption  trade  international competitiveness

摘要:

［目的］牛肉是世界第三大消费肉品，近年来牛肉的营养价值被越来越多的人所认可，全球牛肉消费量不断上升。我国作为世界第三大牛肉生产国，第二大牛肉消费国，牛肉进出口长期处于贸易逆差。系统分析我国牛肉的供需现状，找出制约我国肉牛产业发展面临的困境，提出针对性的措施建议，有利于优化牛肉生产，提升我国牛肉的贸易竞争力。［方法］利用2007—2016年统计数据，对比分析我国牛肉的生产、消费、进出口贸易情况，运用国际竞争力指标分析法测算了10年我国牛肉的竞争力水平，并与牛肉的主要出口国进行比较。［结果］我国牛肉产量稳步上升，2016年达到73658万t，牛肉的生产区域正由中原地区向东北、西北、西南地区转移； 肉牛生产的总产值、总成本及净利润都呈波动式上升趋势，生产经济效益较好，整体处于盈利状态； 随着牛肉消费量增加，国内供需缺口持续扩大； 进口上升，出口相对下降，贸易逆差拉大。我国牛肉缺乏比较优势，国际竞争力较弱。利用回归分析对我国牛肉出口贸易的影响因素进行了研究，发现我国人口、出口对象国人口、地理距离、货币兑换比率、出口对象国产量会反向影响出口数量，出口对象国GDP、出口价格会正向影响出口数量。［结论］在此基础上，提出以提升肉牛产业竞争力为核心支撑的、出口创汇与进口来源拓展并进的措施建议，以期整体推进我国肉牛产业的发展。

Abstract:

Beef consumption ranks the third among all meat in the world. In recent years, the nutritional value of beef has been recognized by more and more people, and the global beef consumption continues to rise. As the world′s third largest beef producer and the second largest beef consumer, China′s beef trade has been in a state of deficit for a long time. Systematically analyzing the supply and demand situation of beef, finding out the dilemma that beef development faced and proposing targeted measures have benefits for both optimizing beef production and enhancing the trade competitiveness of China′s beef. Based on the statistical data from 2007 to 2016, the paper analyzed the situation of beef production, consumption and trade comparatively and evaluated China′s beef international trade level through international competitiveness indicators, and then compared to the main exporters of beef in the world. The research contents and results were listed as follows. Firstly, China′s beef production increased steadily, reaching 7.365 million tons in 2016, and the production area was being transferred from the Central Plains to the Northeast, Northwest and southwest of China. Secondly, the total value, total cost and net profit of cattle production were rising in fluctuation with good economical benefit. The consumption of beef continued to grow and the gap between domestic supply and demand continued to expand. Thirdly, the trade deficit of China was bound to rise while the import volume rose and the export volume declined because of the weak international competitiveness due to the lack of comparative advantages. The paper also studied the influential factors of China′s export of beef by the method of regression analysis. The results showed that the population of China, the population of importing countries, distance, currency exchange rate and beef output of importing countries had negative influences on export quantity of China′s beef, while the GDP of importing country and export price had positive influence. On the basis of above analysis, a few measures and suggestions to enhance the competitiveness of the beef industry, earn foreign exchange through exports and expand import sources are proposed for promoting the development of beef industry holistically.