非农就业对种植决策的影响*——基于土地地势的研究视角

THE IMPACT OF OFF-FARM EMPLOYMENT OF RURAL LABOR ON PLANTING DECISIONS*——A STUDY PERSPECTIVE BASED ON LAND TOPOGRAPHY

关键词:  非农就业复种指数生产效率生产决策地势

Key words:  off farm employment  cropping index  production efficiency  planting decisions  landform

摘要:

［目的］农村劳动力非农转移影响农户农业生产方式变迁，土地质量差异造成的生产差异会随着农村劳动力非农转移造成的人力投入减少而更加显现。针对农户的市场经济行为，文章从理论及实证角度探讨农户农业劳动投入减少时农户生产决策的变化，并根据实证结果进一步探讨我国农业种植结构的变化趋势，为相关政策的制定提供决策参考。［方法］该文运用多元回归模型，从土地资源异质性的视角分析了劳动力非农就业后在不同地势耕地的农业生产决策变化。［结果］劳动力非农就业明显影响了农户种植决策，在质量较高的平地上，农户的生产决策是种植机械化生产使用高的粮食作物来减少劳动力投入下降，在质量较差的山坡地上，农户的生产决策是降低对山坡地的使用强度来解决劳动力投入不足问题，具体表现方式是降低粮食种植面积以及抛荒方式来分配家庭农业劳动投入。［结论］不同地势耕地利用强度将会出现不同变化，平原以及交通便利地区，可以通过机械来替代人力投入，交通较为不发达的山区丘陵地区，需要通过加大农业基础设施建设等来解决山区丘陵地区的抛荒问题。政策支持方面，鼓励中低产田提高产品产量与提升降本技术，保障与维护国家粮食安全。

Abstract:

The non agricultural transfer of rural labor force has a lasting and far reaching influence on the change of agricultural production mode. The production differences which caused by the discrepancies of land quality will be more obvious with the decrease of human input caused by the non agricultural transfer of rural labor force. This research attempts to scientifically discuss the changes of farmers′ production decision when agricultural labor input decreases from the theoretical and empirical perspectives according to the market economic behavior of farmers, and further discuss the change trend of China′s agricultural planting structure, so as to provide decision making reference for relevant policy making on the basis of the empirical results. By using the multiple regression model, this article discussed the change of farmers′ planting decisions in different terrain after non agricultural employment from the perspective of land heterogeneity. The conclusion showed labor non agricultural migration changed farmers′ planting decisions, farmers had different decisions in different land forms. On the flat land with high quality, farmers would increase mechanical input to instead of the reduce of labor input. On the hillside land with poor land quality, farmers would decrease the cropping index of gain or desolate rural land. The policy suggestions are that the government should strengthen agricultural infrastructure and encourage technology for increasing production in low /fields, which means the income per unit of land in hilly area should be increased in order to solve the problem of low quality land use intensity caused by non agricultural labor migrant, ensure and maintain China′s food security.