水足迹视角下我国农业水土资源匹配及农业经济增长——以长江经济带为例

ANALYSIS OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES MATCHING AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA FROM THE PERCEPECTIVE OF WATER FOOTPRINT——TAKING THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  水足迹水土资源匹配度农业经济增长长江经济带

Key words:  water footprint  water and soil resources  matching degree  agricultural economic growth  Yangtze River Economic Belt

摘要:

［目的］水土资源是重要的农业生产资源，农业水土资源的合理匹配有利于充分利用区域现有资源优势，从而对区域农业经济增长产生影响。［方法］文章从水足迹视角出发，以长江经济带11个省市为研究区域，运用水土资源匹配系数法深入分析其不同区域农业水土资源匹配情况，并进一步运用空间计量模型探究区域农业水土资源匹配度对农业经济增长的影响。［结果］我国长江经济带整体农业水土资源匹配度为0426万m3/hm2，低于全国水平，且整体处于缓慢下降趋势，匹配程度在逐年变差；农业水土资源当量系数为0709，属于缺土地区；农业经济增长的Moran′s I指数显著为正，即存在显著空间关联，但2008年以后关联性有减弱迹象； 我国长江经济带地区农业水土资源匹配度对农业经济增长的促进作用不明显。［结论］其区域农业经济增长与农业水土资源空间匹配状况之间存在明显错位现象，即实际农业经济增长较快地区农业水土资源匹配度较差，而农业经济增长较慢地区农业水土资源匹配度较好。

Abstract:

Water and soil resources are important agricultural production resources. The reasonable matching of agricultural water and soil resources is conducive to making full use of the existing resources in the region, which will have an impact on regional agricultural economic growth. From the perspective of water footprint, this paper took 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research area, used the method of matching coefficient of water and soil resources to analyze the matching situation of agricultural water and soil resources in different regions, and further explored the impact of matching degree of regional agricultural water and soil resources on agricultural economic growth by using the spatial measurement model. The results showed that the matching degree of agricultural water and soil resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China was 4.26 103 m3/hm2, which was lower than the national level, and it was in a slow decline trend. The matching degree was getting worse year by year. The equivalent coefficient of agricultural water and soil resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was 0.709, which belonged to the soil deficient area. The Moran′s I index of agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China was significantly positive. There was significant spatial correlation, but the correlation was weakened after 2008. The matching degree of agricultural water and soil resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region of China had no obvious role in promoting the agricultural economic growth. In summary, there is a significant dislocation between the regional agricultural economic growth and the spatial matching of agricultural water and soil resources. That is, the matching degree of agricultural water and soil resources is poor in the areas with rapid agricultural economic growth, while the matching degree of agricultural water and soil resources is good in the areas with slow agricultural economic growth.