撤市改区视域下城乡融合对种植业发展的影响*——来自佛山市三水区的经验证据

IMPACT OF URBAN RURAL INTEGRATION ON PLANTING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF TURNING COUNTY LEVEL CITIES INTO DISTRICTS*——A CASE STUDY OF SANSHUI DISTRICT, FOSHAN CITY

关键词:  撤市（县）改区城乡融合种植业发展合成控制法三水区

Key words:  turning counties into district  urban rural integration  planting industry development  synthetic control method  Sanshui district

摘要:

［目的］城乡融合对当地种植业发展的影响，因存在内生性问题而难以度量。撤市（县）改区是旨在推进城乡融合的行政区划改革，可以视为城乡融合对县域种植业的外生冲击，文章以2002年发生在广东省佛山市三水区的撤市改区作为政策自然实验，估计了城乡融合对当地种植业产值的影响，并分析影响机制。［方法］运用合成控制法研究城乡融合对三水区种植业产值的影响，采取置换检验、安慰剂检验对估计结果进行有效性检验，并使用双重差分法进行稳健性检验。最后探讨城乡融合对种植业发展的影响机制。［结果］城乡融合对三水区种植业产值仅产生短期负向冲击，从长期看，三水区种植业产值并未落后于合成控制组。在影响机制层面，该文认为短期负向冲击主要来自涉农支出短期“偏移”，长期无效应源于生产效率提升与种植结构调整。［结论］通过对三水区的个案分析，该文探讨了城乡融合与种植业发展的和谐共生模式，为处在城乡一体化进程中的市（县）提供了种植业发展的经验启示。

Abstract:

The impact of urban rural integration on local planting industry development is difficult to measure due to endogeneity. Turning county level cities (counties) into districts is an administrative division reform aimed at promoting urban rural integration. It can be regarded as an exogenous impact of urban rural integration on county scale planting industry. This article took the turning county level city into district in Sanshui district, Foshan city, Guangdong province in 2002 as a natural policy experiment, estimated the impact of urban rural integration on the output value of local planting industry, and analyzed the impact mechanism. And the synthetic control method was used to investigate the impact of urban rural integration on the output value of the planting industry in Sanshui district, then permutation test and placebo test were applied to determine the effectiveness of the estimation results, and the Difference in Difference method was applied to test the robustness of the results obtained. Finally, the mechanism of the impact of urban rural integration on the development of planting industry was investigated. The results showed the urban rural integration had only a short term negative impact on the output value of the planting industry in Sanshui district, while in the long term, the output value did not lag behind the synthetic control group. With regard to the impact mechanism, the short term "offset" of agriculture related expenditures was the primary cause of the short term negative impacts, while the absence of long term significant impacts was due to the improvement in production efficiency and the adjustment of planting structure. Through the case study of Sanshui district, this article analyzes the harmonious symbiosis mode of urban rural integration and planting industry development, and provided the experience of planting industry development for county level cities (counties) in the process of urban rural integration.