新疆新型城镇化对农村居民消费结构的影响*——基于LA-AIDS拓展模型的实证分析

INFLUENCE OF NEW URBANIZATION ON CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE OF RURAL RESIDENTS IN XINJIANG*——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON LA AIDS EXPANSION MODEL

关键词:  新型城镇化消费结构LA-AIDS拓展模型农村居民新疆

Key words:  new urbanization  consumption structure  LA AIDS expansion model  rural residents  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］从人口、经济、生态、社会城镇化等4个方面选取30个指标研究其对消费结构的影响，为政府在优化产业结构，促进消费结构优化升级方面的政策性引导提供理论依据。［方法］文章基于1994—2016年时间序列数据，利用熵值法对4类城镇化的综合评价指数进行测算，并建立LA-AIDS拓展模型，实证分析4类城镇化对新疆农村居民消费结构的影响作用。［结果］人口城镇化对居住、文教娱乐消费有显著的抑制作用，对食品、家庭设备及服务和医疗保健消费有显著的促进作用； 经济城镇化对医疗保健消费具有显著的正向效应； 生态城镇化对家庭设备消费具有显著的抑制作用，对交通通信、医疗保健消费具有显著的正向作用； 社会城镇化显著促进衣着和家庭设备及用品消费。［结论］不同类型的城镇化对消费结构的影响具有差异性，新疆农村居民的消费类型逐步从生存型趋向于发展型与享受型消费。

Abstract:

From four aspects of population, economy, ecology and social urbanization, 30 indicators are selected to study its impact on the consumption structure, which provides a theoretical basis for the government to optimize industrial structure and promote the optimization and upgrade of the consumption structure. Based on the time series data from 1994 to 2016, the comprehensive evaluation index of four types of urbanization was calculated by entropy method, and the LA AIDS expansion model was established to empirically analyze the influence of four types of urbanization on the consumption structure of rural residents in Xinjiang. The results were listed as follows. Population urbanization had a significant inhibiting effect on the consumption of housing, culture, education and entertainment, and a significant promoting effect on the consumption of food, household equipment and services, and medical security. Economic urbanization had a significant positive effect on medical security consumption. Ecological urbanization had a significant inhibitory effect on household equipment consumption and a significant positive effect on transportation, communication and medical security consumption. Social urbanization had significantly promoted the consumption of clothing and household equipment and supplies. It concludes that different types of urbanization have different effects on the consumption structure. The consumption types of rural residents in Xinjiang are gradually shifting from subsistence to development and enjoyment.