西北5省区“生态环境—经济发展—城镇化”耦合协调发展及预测分析

ANALYSIS OF COUPLED COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST OF "ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT URBANIZATION＂ IN FIVE PROVINCES OF NORTHWEST CHINA

关键词:  EEU系统协调发展时空演化灰色预测西北5省区

Key words:  ecological environment economic development urbanization system  coordination development  spatial temporal evolution  Grey models  the five provinces of northwest China

摘要:

［目的］探讨“生态环境—经济发展—城镇化”三维系统（以下简称“EEU”系统）协调发展关系，以期为推动三者全面协调发展提供参考。［方法］文章以西北5省区为例，在构建EEU系统评价指标体系的基础上，运用熵权法、耦合协调模型、GIS工具和灰色预测模型对西北各省区EEU系统耦合协调发展进行分析。［结果］2003—2017年西北5省区EEU系统评价值呈上升趋势，经济发展和城镇化系统评价值呈波动上升态势，明显高于生态环境系统评价值； 耦合度水平较高，协调度整体由过度发展大类向协调发展大类演变； 各省区协调度上升等级不同且未能达到优质协调等级，协调发展的制约因素有经济发展滞后型和生态环境滞后型两大类； 未来5年各省区协调度将稳步提升，但演进差异明显。［结论］提出要遵循科学方法，补齐生态环境短板；突破薄弱环节，推进系统协调发展；重点关注甘肃，实现区域协同发展的对策建议。

Abstract:

This research aims to explore the coordinated development relationship of the "ecological environment economic development urbanization" three dimensional system (hereinafter referred to as "EEU system").With a view to promoting the comprehensive and coordinated development of the three. Based on the construction of the EEU system evaluation index system, this research took the five provinces of northwest China as an example, and used the entropy weight method, the coupling coordinated model, the GIS tools and the grey prediction model to analyze the coupling and coordinated development of the EEU system in the northwestern provinces. The results were showed as follows. The evaluation value of EEU system in the five northwestern provinces showed an upward trend from 2003 to 2017.The evaluation value of economic development and urbanization system was fluctuating and rising, which were significantly higher than the evaluation value of the ecological environment system. The level of coupling was high, and the overall coordination degree had evolved from an over development category to a coordinated development category. Different provinces and regions had different levels of coordination, and failed to achieve quality coordination level. The constraints of coordinated development were two types of economic development lag type and ecological environment lag type. The coordination degree of provinces and regions would increase steadily in the next five years, but the evolution was quite different. Based on this, it is proposed to follow the scientific methods, fill in the short term ecological environment, break through the weak links, promote the coordinated development of the system, focus on Gansu and implement countermeasures for regional coordinated development.