我国水利绿色发展水平测算分析

CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF WATER CONSERVANCY GREEN DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

关键词:  水利绿色发展  二维关联指标矩阵  水平测算  主控因子  中国

Key words:  water conservancy green development  two-dimensional correlative model  index calculation  main control factor  China

摘要:

目的 通过建立水利绿色发展二维关联评价指标矩阵，从社会—经济—生态和输入—响应—输出两维度测算我国水利绿色发展水平，并分别从准则层、指标层确定其主控因子。方法 文章运用水利绿色发展指数模型，选取2008—2017年17个指标分析我国水利绿色发展水平的时间演进；采用障碍度模型分析其主控因子。结果 我国水利发展已从非绿色发展期（2008年及以前）、较差绿色发展期（2009—2014年）进入基本绿色发展期（2015—2017年），水利绿色发展指数从2008年的0.11上升至2017年的0.54，社会—经济—生态耦合协调度从2008年的0.18上升至2017年的0.54，输入—响应—输出耦合协调度从2008年的0.04上升至2017年的0.53。中国水利绿色发展水平主要控制因子整体表现为社会因子>经济因子>生态因子，输入因子>响应因子>输出因子；指标层主控因子中生态用水比例系数、水利信息化水平、工业用水重复率、农业用水比例系数、水土流失治理率、水功能区水质达标率在排名前五位因子出现频率最高。结论 水资源开发利用环节的绿色高效、经济发展结构优化及水资源信息化管理水平在我国水利绿色发展进程中起到重要作用。

Abstract:

The rapid development of economy has brought tremendous security pressure to the ecological environment, especially the water ecology and water environment. As an important connecting hub of society, economy and ecology, the water conservancy green development is an important guarantee to realize the sustainable development of the country. The two-dimensional evaluation index matrix of water green development was established to calculate the level of water conservancy green development in China from the two dimensions of society economy ecology and input response output. And the main control factors were determined from the criteria level and index level respectively. Using the water green development index model, 17 indicators of China from 2008 to 2017 were selected to analyze the time evolution of China’s water conservancy green development, and the obstacle model was used to analyze its main control factors. The results showed that China's water development had entered the basic green development period (2015-2017) from the non-green development period (2008 and before), the poor green development period (2009-2014). The water green development index rose from 0.11 in 2008 to 0.54 in 2017. The social-economic-ecological coupling coordination degree increased from 0.18 in 2008 to 0.54 in 2017, and the input-response-output coupling coordination degree increased from 0.04 in 2008 to 0.53 in 2017. The main controlling factors of water green development level in China were social factor > economic factor > ecological factor, input factor > response factor > output factor. Among the main control index factors, the proportion coefficient of ecological water use, the level of water informatization, the repetition rate of industrial water use, the proportion coefficient of agricultural water use, the control rate of soil erosion and the rate of water quality reaching the standard in the water function area had the highest frequency among the top five factors. It concludes that the green and efficient utilization of water resources, the optimization of economic development structure and the information management level of water resources play an important role in water conservancy green development in China.