农业机械化水平对农户主粮生产的影响

THE INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION LEVEL ON FARMERS′ PRODUCTION OF STAPLE FOOD

关键词:  农业机械化水平  农户  主粮生产  IV Tobit模型  粮食安全

Key words:  agricultural mechanization level  farmers  staple food production  IV Tobit model  food security

摘要:

目的 粮食问题关系国家安全、政治稳定和社会安定，是实施乡村振兴战略的首要任务。深入剖析新时期下农户粮食生产的影响因素，是保证国家粮食安全的现实要求。方法 文章基于农户实地调研数据，运用工具变量法和样本选择修正模型分析农业机械化水平对农户主粮生产的影响。结果 （1）农业机械化水平对农户主粮生产有显著的正向影响，农业机械化水平每提高1%，农户主粮单产就提高1.219%，其中，水稻单产增加1.220 7%，小麦单产增加0.807 6%，玉米单产增加1.106 4%，马铃薯单产增加1.379 8%。（2）从控制变量来看，户主受教育年限、户主务农经验、粮食补贴、农药化肥投入和平原地形都对不同主粮作物生产有积极作用，家庭外出务工占比、土地流转和气候极端变化都对不同主粮作物生产有消极作用。结论 在农户不大幅调整当前主粮种植结构的前提下，适当增加马铃薯种植面积，提高种粮农户农业机械补贴力度，推广农机社会化作业服务模式，从而提高粮食产量，保障国家粮食安全。

Abstract:

Food issues are related to national security, political stability, and social stability, and are the primary tasks for implementing the strategy of rural revitalization. An in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of farmers' food production in the new period is a realistic requirement for ensuring national food security. Based on field survey data of farmers, this paper analyzed the impact of agricultural mechanization on farmers' staple food production by using instrumental variable method and sample selection modification model. The results were listed as follows. The level of agricultural mechanization had a significant positive impact on the production of staple food for farmers. For each 1% increased in the level of agricultural mechanization, the farmers' main grain yield, rice yield, wheat yield, corn yield, and potato yield increase by 1.219%, 1.220 7%, 0.807 6%, 1.106 4%, 1.379 8%, respectively. From the perspective of controlling variables, the years of education of heads of households, farming experience of heads of households, food subsidies, inputs of pesticides and fertilizers, and plain topography all had positive effects on the production of different staple food crops, while the proportion of family laborers working outside, land transfer and extreme changes in climate all had negative effects on the production of different staple food crops. So, under the premise that farmers do not significantly adjust the current staple grain planting structure, they can appropriately increase potato planting areas, increase subsidies for agricultural machinery for grain farmers, and promote the social operation service model of agricultural machinery, thereby increasing food production and ensuring national food security.