| 摘要: |
| 目的 奶牛养殖业是奶业产业的起始环节，研究奶牛养殖区域布局演变规律和成因，是进一步优化奶牛养殖布局，提高奶牛综合生产能力，进而推进实现我国奶业振兴的现实要求。方法 文章基于1996—2016年我国省级面板数据，对奶牛养殖区域布局情况进行描述性统计分析，并运用区域重心分析法综合考察奶牛养殖区域布局重心变动的轨迹和特征，选取个体固定效应模型对奶牛养殖区域布局变动的影响因素进行实证分析。结果 计量结果表明，奶牛存栏滞后一期、奶牛存栏滞后二期、玉米年产量、大豆年产量、乳企数量、技术进步、财政政策支持和禁牧政策是影响奶牛养殖布局变动的主要因素，且影响程度有所不同。结论 提出把握奶牛养殖区域变动规律、加强奶牛养殖生态环境建设、合理规划玉米与大豆的种植区域、加快奶牛养殖技术创新、优化乳制品企业布局、增加财政补贴等政策建议。 |
| 关键词: 奶牛养殖 区域布局 面板数据 固定效应模型 影响因素 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210115 |
| 分类号:F304.5 |
| 基金项目:国家社科青年基金项目“西北民族地区畜牧业适度规模经营与精准扶贫协同发展机制研究”（17CMZ036）；吉林省科技发展计划项目“基于“种养结合”的吉林省畜禽粪污资源化利用问题与政策优化研究”（20190601042FG）；吉林省“十三五”智库规划基金项目“吉林省畜禽养殖废弃物资源化利用的经济路径及激励机制研究”（2019JLSKZB062） |
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| CHANGES AND CAUSES OF REGIONAL LAYOUT OF DAIRY CATTLE BREEDING IN CHINA |
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Lang Yu, Wang Guixia, Wu Peirong
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College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, Jilin, China
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| Abstract: |
| Dairy farming is the beginning of dairy industry. Studying the evolution rules and causes of regional layout of dairy farming is a realistic requirement of further optimizing the layout of dairy farming, improving the comprehensive production capacity of cows and further promoting the revitalization of China's dairy industry. Based on the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2016, this research made a descriptive statistical analysis of the regional distribution of dairy farming, and comprehensively investigated the track and characteristics of the change of the regional distribution of the center of gravity of dairy farming by using the method of regional gravity analysis, and selected the individual fixed effect model to make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the change of the regional distribution of dairy farming. The results showed that the lag of dairy cattle stocking for one period, the lag of dairy cattle stocking for two periods, the annual yield of maize, the annual yield of soybean, number of dairy enterprises, technological progress, financial policy support and forbidden grazing policy were the main factors affected the change of dairy cattle farming layout, and the degree of influence was different. Based on this, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as grasping the changing law of dairy farming area, strengthening the ecological environment construction of dairy farming, rational planning of maize and soybean planting regions, speeding up the technological innovation of dairy farming, optimizing the layout of dairy enterprises, and increasing financial subsidies. |
| Key words: dairy cattle breeding regional distribution panel data fixed effect model influencing factors |
