小农生产与社会化服务体系的融合研究以滇黔桂78个民族乡镇为例

A STUDY ON THE INTEGRATION OF SMALLHOLDER PRODUCTION AND SOCIALIZED SERVICE SYSTEM*—— A CASE STUDY OF 78 ETHNIC TOWNSHIPS IN YUNNAN, GUIZHOU AND GUANGXI

关键词:  民族地区  LASSO回归  因子分析  VAR模型  嵌入式融合

Key words:  ethnic regions  LASSO regression  factor analysis  VAR  embedded fusion

摘要:

目的 为全面研究农业社会化服务体系中存在的市场失利、组织失能、科技失效和保障失助问题，通过调研获得1988—2017年滇黔桂地区78个民族乡镇的相关数据，分析探讨小农生产与社会化服务体系融合过程中存在的困境和问题，为促进二者间的深度融合寻求对策措施。方法 文章运用LASSO压缩回归，对原指标体系的70个变量进行精简，得到解释力更优的选模型；采用因子分析建模计算四大要素嵌入的得分；构建VAR模型以探究四大要素间的联动关系。结果 实证分析表明，滇黔桂地区农业社会化服务体系中的四大要素嵌入间存有融合不够、互动不足、协调不力等问题。从VAR（1）模型来看，滞后一期的农业社会化服务体系的四大要素均能在当期有效提升某一要素的水平，因此，四大要素必须同步协调发展。从方差分解的贡献率来看，每一种要素对自身的贡献率最大，仍需依靠自身的内力推动四大要素间的协同发展。结论 在实现现代要素与农户协作的“耦合”、组织效率与专业分工的“互促”、科研教育与政策需求的“协同”和行政引导与市场自觉的“内化”后，能有效促进系统的“嵌入式融合”。

Abstract:

To comprehensively study the problems of the failed market, organizational disability, technology failure, and security loss in the agricultural socialized service system, relevant data of 78 ethnic townships in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi from 1988 to 2017 were obtained through investigating, and the difficulties and problems existing in the integration process of small-scale peasant production and socialized service system were analyzed and discussed to seek countermeasures for promoting the deep integration between the two sides. Adopting LASSO compression regression, the 70 variables of the original index system were simplified to obtain the selection model with better explanatory power. Factor analysis modeling was applied to calculate the scores of four elements embedding and the VAR model was constructed to explore the linkage relationship among the four elements. It was showed by the empirical analysis that there were some problems such as the insufficient merging and interaction and poor coordination among the four elements embedded in the agricultural socialization service system in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi. From the perspective of the VAR(1) model, the four elements of the agricultural socialized service system lagging behind the first stage could effectively improve the level of a certain element in the current period, which must develop synchronously and coordinately. From the perspective of the contribution rate of variance decomposition, each factor contributed the most to itself, and its own internal force still needed to rely on to promote the coordinated development among the four factors. In summary, the "embedded integration" of the system can be effectively promoted after realizing the "coupling" between modern factors and peasant householders' cooperation, the "mutual promotion" between organizational efficiency and professional division of labor, the "coordination" between scientific research education and policy demand, and the "internalization" between administrative guidance and market consciousness.