草地贪夜蛾对我国农业生产潜在影响程度的分析

ANALYSIS ON THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF SPODOPTERA FRUGIPERDA ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CHINA

关键词:  草地贪夜蛾  分布  迁飞预测  防控  潜在风险

Key words:  Spodoptera frugiperda  distribution  forecasting migration  control  potential risk

摘要:

目的 草地贪夜蛾作为一种严重威胁农业生产的全球性入侵昆虫，从2019年1月云南确认发现该虫入侵，截止2019年6月初全国已查实虫害发生面积22.8万hm²，涉及18个省（区），并对黄淮及北方玉米主产区威胁巨大，增加了我国粮食安全的不确定性。为初步评估该虫入侵可能给我国农业生产带来的潜在风险，提出对策建议。方法 文章采用文献综述和比较分析法，以草地贪夜蛾在全球分布和中国发生现状为基础，从生物学特性、入侵过程、为害程度、侵染特征等方面开展适生性分析，并对其在我国分布区域进行界定。结果 我国侵染作物的部分侵染特征与国外研究不同，可能是草地贪夜蛾作为一种新的入侵害虫，在我国其发生规律还无法在短时间内被摸清；根据适生条件分析，推测出该虫在我国可能的时空分布。结论 目前，依托我国防治迁飞害虫的技术储备、实践经验和高效的科研推广机制，按照农业主管部门统一布防调控，草地贪夜蛾只会在各地发生为害，不会大面积连片成灾，总体可控。此外，通过科学合理的防控策略可以实现可持续的防治解决办法，满足我国可持续农业及食品安全的需要。

Abstract:

Spodoptera frugiperda is a global invasion insect which severely poses threat on agricultural production. Its invation was firstly confirmed in Yunnan province in early January of 2019. Up to the June of 2019, the confirmed area with the insect invasion in the country was 228 000 hm², covering 18 provinces (autonomous regions), which posed a great threat to the corn production in Huanghuai Basin and northern part of China, and increased the uncertainty of grain security of China. This research is a preliminary evaluation on the potential risks of the invasion of the insect on agricultural production of the country and proposes countermeasures and suggestions. By employing literature review and comparative analysis methods, and on the basis of Spodoptera frugiperda global distribution and occurrence situations of China, the paper conducted adaptability analysis from the aspects of biological characteristics, invasion process, harmfulness degree, infection features, and defined the distribution area of the insect in the country. Infection characteristics of the insect in China were different from that of the other countries, since Spodoptera frugiperda was a new type of invasion insect, and the regularity of outbreak of the insect in China was not clearly understood in a short period of time. According to the analysis of suitable conditions, the likely spatial and temporal distribution of the insect in the country was conjectured. Currently, with technical reserve, practical experience, and high efficient scientific promotion mechanisms on prevention and control of migration insects, and under the unified protection and control of measures of government agricultural departments, Spodoptera frugiperda only occurs in individual areas but will not cause disaster in large areas and regions. Generally, it is under control. In addition, scientific and reasonable prevention and control strategies can be used to achieve a sustainable prevention and control solution, so as to meet the demand on sustainable agriculture and food security of China.