多重政策影响下农户秸秆机械粉碎还田技术采纳行为仿真分析

SIMULATION ANALYSIS ON FARMERS′ ADOPTION BEHAVIOR OF STRAW MECHANICAL CRUSHING AND RETURNING TECHNOLOGY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE POLICIES

关键词:  技术采纳  秸秆机械粉碎还田  农户  Agent模型  决策行为  政策组合

Key words:  technology adoption  straw mechanical crushing and returning  farmers  Agent-based model  decision-making behavior  policy mix

摘要:

目的 实施农作物秸秆机械粉碎还田是提高农业生产率和减少环境污染的重要举措。为有效推动农户采纳秸秆机械粉碎还田技术，探索政策刺激对农户采纳决策行为的影响变化规律，为政府政策制定和实施提供理论依据和决策参考。方法 文章基于Agent建模思路和方法，设计农户采纳决策模型和政策情景，对政府补贴、秸秆禁烧、农技推广3种政策组合刺激影响农户采纳秸秆机械粉碎还田技术的动态过程进行仿真分析。结果 农技推广政策与其他政策组合实施对环境认知程度较低的农户而言，通过成功的信息诱导来刺激农户偏好对采纳决策影响具有明显效果；3种政策合理组合刺激农户采纳秸秆机械粉碎还田技术的作用效果最佳；从政策组合刺激农户选择秸秆机械粉碎还田技术的实现方式来看，当秸秆禁烧与推广政策组合时，提高信息诱导措施强度有助于农户倾向选择购买农机来实施秸秆机械粉碎还田。反之，提高对秸秆焚烧行为的处罚力度有助于农户倾向选择购买专业服务来实施秸秆机械粉碎还田。结论 政府应将补贴、处罚和信息诱导措施组合实施来推动农户采纳秸秆机械粉碎还田技术，且从长远看随时间推移，有适度管制，政府可逐渐放松补贴和信息诱导措施刺激的力度，农户通过学习会从传统秸秆焚烧行为向选择秸秆机械粉碎还田行为转变。

Abstract:

It is an important measure for improving agricultural productivity and reducing environmental pollution to implement the mechanical crushing and returning of crop straw to the field. This research is intended to explore the impact of policy stimulation on farmers′ adoption decision-making behavior, so as to effectively promote farmers to adopt the technology of straw mechanical crushing and returning to field, and provide theoretical basis and decision-making reference for government policy-making and implementation. Based on the idea and method of agent modeling, this paper designed the decision-making models and policy scenarios for farmers to adopt straw mechanical crushing and returning technology, and made simulation analysis on the dynamic process of three policy mixes of government subsidies, straw burning ban and agricultural technology promotion that stimulated and affected farmers′ adoption of straw mechanical crushing and returning technology. The results showed that the combination of agricultural technology promotion policy and other policies had a significant effect on the adoption decision-making of farmers with low environmental cognition by stimulating farmers′ preference through successful information induction; the reasonable combination of three policies had the best effect on stimulating farmers to adopt the technology of straw mechanical crushing and returning to the field; from the perspective of policy combination to stimulate farmers to choose the way to realize straw mechanical crushing and returning technology, when straw burning prohibition policy and promotion policy were mixed, increasing the intensity of information induction measures would help farmers purchase agricultural machinery, implement straw mechanical crushing and return to the field. On the contrary, improving the punishment of straw burning behavior would help farmers purchase professional services, implement straw mechanical crushing, and return to the field. Therefore, government should implement the combination of subsidies, penalties and information induction measures to promote farmers to adopt the straw mechanical crushing and returning technology. In the long run, with appropriate regulation over time, the government can gradually relax the stimulation of subsidies and information induction measures, and farmers will change from the traditional straw burning behavior to the choice of straw mechanical crushing and returning behavior by learning.