1971—2015年华北平原种植结构变化及其驱动力分析以曲周县为例

PLANTING STRUCTURE CHANGES AND THE DRIVING FORCES IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN FORM 1971 TO 2015 ——TAKING QUZHOU COUNTY AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  曲周县  种植面积  种植结构调整  Logistic  模型  驱动力

Key words:  Quzhou county  planting area  planting structure change  Logistic model  driving force

摘要:

目的 分析过去45年曲周县种植结构变化特点，研究种植结构变化的驱动力，为该区域种植结构调整提供理论依据。方法 文章收集了1971—2015年曲周县统计年鉴记录的作物播种面积，结合曲周县开展的关于种植结构变化驱动力的农户调研，应用二元Logistic模型，从农户自身特征、家庭特征两个方面实证分析影响农户种植决策的客观因素；同时运用数量统计法分析影响农户种植决策的主观因素。结果 近45年来，曲周县主要粮食作物小麦和玉米的播种面积占作物总播种面积比例基本稳定；棉花播种面积变化较大，蔬菜瓜果的播种面积迅速增加，增长率达1189%；而高粱、谷物、大豆、薯类、油菜、花生和芝麻等作物的播种面积占比持续减少。年龄和教育水平对种植结构调整有显著影响，引起种植结构变化的主要驱动因子为经济利益、机械化和省力技术、年龄。结论 近45年来，曲周县作物种植种类减少，小麦和玉米占主导地位，棉花次之，瓜果蔬菜呈稳步增加趋势；主观因素与客观因素相结合导致种植结构变化。

Abstract:

The study aims to investigate planting structure changes in Quzhou county over the last 45 years, explore its driving factors, and provide a theoretical basis for planting structure adjustment in this region. Collecting crop planting area data documented in the Quzhou county statistical yearbook from 1971 to 2015, combining with a farm survey performed across the county to explore planting structure change, we applied the binary logistic model to conduct an analysis. And we empirically examined the objective factors affecting farmers' planting decisions from two aspects: farmers' own characteristics and family characteristics; meanwhile, we used quantitative statistics to analyze the subjective factors affecting farmers' planting decisions. Generally, the planting area proportion of wheat and maize to the total planted area in Quzhou county was kept constant in the past 45 years. Planting area proportion of cotton changed greatly, and planting area proportion of vegetables and fruits both increased rapidly, with a growth rate of 1189%. However, planting area proportion of the following crops decreased continuously, such as sorghum, grains, soybeans, potatoes, canola, peanuts and sesame. Age and education level had significant impact on the adjustment of the planting structure. The main driving factors that caused changes in planting structure included economic benefits, mechanization, labor-saving technologies, and age. It concluded that in the past 45 years, crop species in Quzhou county declined and wheat and corn became dominated, followed by cotton, while fruits and vegetables increased steadily. The subjective and objective factors both functioned together and caused the changes in the planting structure.