少数民族连片特困地区农户贫困脆弱性及其影响因素研究以新疆南疆三地州为例

STUDY ON VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS IN MINORITY CONTIGUOUS DESTITUTE AREASTAKING THE THREE PREFECTURES IN SOUTHERN XINJIANG AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  贫困脆弱性  农户  影响因素  少数民族连片特困地区  VEP  Tobit回归模型

Key words:  vulnerability to poverty  farmers  influencing factors  minority contiguous destitute areas  VEP  Tobit regression model

摘要:

目的 研究少数民族连片特困地区农户贫困脆弱性程度及影响因素，以期为现阶段巩固脱贫攻坚成果、防止返贫提供借鉴参考。方法 文章基于新疆南疆三地州1 258户农户的问卷调查数据，运用VEP方法对少数民族连片特困地区农户贫困脆弱性进行测度，并使用Tobit回归模型实证分析其影响因素。结果 南疆三地州农户贫困脆弱性均值为0.331，贫困脆弱发生率为16.93%，且贫困脆弱性呈现出地区差异，由高到低依次为和田地区、喀什地区、克州地区。家庭能熟练说普通话人口占比、劳动力职业技能培训、参加农业保险情况、社会资本、是否收入多样化、所在村庄地形、是否通公交车对农户贫困脆弱性具有显著的负向影响，而家庭规模、家庭负担比、健康冲击、自然灾害对农户贫困脆弱性具有显著的正向影响。结论 据此提出加强国家通用语言和职业技能教育培训、促进农户积极投保农业保险、提高农村公共交通服务覆盖范围、重视农户健康贫困脆弱性等建议。

Abstract:

This paper studies the degree and influencing factors of vulnerability to poverty of farmers in minority contiguous destitute areas, so as to provide reference for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and preventing return to poverty at the present stage. Based on the survey data of 1 258 farmers in the three prefectures of Southern Xinjiang, this paper applied VEP method to measure the vulnerability to poverty of farmers in minority contiguous destitute areas, and the Tobit regression model was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors. The results showed that the mean of vulnerability to poverty of farmers in the three prefectures of Southern Xinjiang was 0.331, and the incidence of vulnerability to poverty was 16.93%. There were regional differences in the vulnerability to poverty of farmers, and the order of vulnerability to poverty from high to low was Hetian area, Kashgar area and Kezhou area. Moreover, some of the influencing factors, such as the proportion of the proficiency-speaking Mandarin of the family member, whether the labor force had been trained in vocational skills, whether to participate in agricultural insurance, social capital, whether the family income was diversified, the landform of the village and whether the village was accessible by bus, had a significant negative impact on the vulnerability to poverty of farmers. And some of the factors, such as family size, family burden ratio, health shocks and natural disasters, had a significant positive effect on the vulnerability to poverty of farmers. Accordingly, this paper puts forward some recommendations, including strengthening the education and training of national common language and vocational skills, promoting farmers to actively participate in agricultural insurance, enhancing the coverage of public transport services in rural areas, and attaching importance to the vulnerability to health poverty of farmers.