新发展格局下中国主要农产品进口战略分析

ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IMPORT STRATEGY UNDER THE NEW DEVELOPMENT PATTERN

关键词:  农产品  进口  国际贸易  供需平衡  战略选择

Key words:  agricultural product  import  international trade  supply and demand balance  strategic choice

摘要:

目的 改革开放以来，中国粮食等重要农产品生产取得举世瞩目成就，谷物、肉类等重要农产品总产量稳居世界前列，人均占有量和消费量稳步提升，满足城乡居民不断增长的消费需求，但受诸多因素影响，通过国际市场调剂国内余缺、补充国内农产品结构性供需缺口业已成为客观现实。近年来，中国农产品进口面临的国内外风险与压力不断增大。方法 文章采用统计分析等方法，系统梳理农产品进口现状，研判未来农产品进口趋势，最后研究提出应对策略建议。结果 当前，在保持主要农产品基本自给的同时，中国农产品进口呈持续增长态势；进口结构有所调整，大豆占进口农产品的份额最大；进口渠道呈现多元化，但市场集中度高的现实未得到转变。未来，在国内市场供需“紧平衡”且国内生产竞争优势不足的情况下，中国农产品进口将继续保持在较高水平；进口空间尚存，但须警惕外部不确定性因素的负面影响。结论 应理性看待中国农产品进口这一客观形势，坚持适度安全原则，进一步夯实国内农产品供给保障基础，加大农产品贸易合作力度，增强不确定性因素应对能力。

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening up, China's production of grain and other important agricultural products have achieved the world-renowned achievements. The total output of important agricultural products such as cereals and meat have been ranked in the forefront of the world, and the per capita share and consumption have increased steadily, which have well met the growing consumption needs of the urban and rural residents. However, under the impact of many factors, it have become an objective reality to adjust the domestic surplus and shortages, and supplement the domestic structural supply and demand gaps of agricultural products through the international market. In recent years, the domestic and foreign risks and pressures faced by China’s agricultural products import are increasing. Using the methods including statistical analysis, this paper systematically combed the status quo of agricultural products import, forecasted its future trends, and proposed some countermeasures and suggestions. At present, China's agricultural products import was continuing to grow, as well as maintaining its basic self-sufficiency. The import structure had been adjusted, and the soybeans accounted for the largest share of imported agricultural products. The import channels were diversified, but the reality of high market concentration had not been changed. In the context of a tight balance of the domestic supply and demand, and the insufficient domestic production competitive advantages, China's agricultural products import would remain at a relatively high level in the future. There was still room for the agricultural products import, but the negative effects of external uncertainties should be alerted. So, it is necessary to take a rational view of China's agricultural products import, adhere to the principle of appropriate security, further reinforce the basis for domestic agricultural products supply, increase agricultural products trade cooperation, and enhance the ability to deal with uncertain factors.