“三块地”改革的政策效果对比研究基于HCW模型的实证分析

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE POLICY EFFECT OF THE “THREE KINDS OF LAND” REFORMANEMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON HCW MODEL

关键词:  HCW模型  经济城镇化率  农林牧渔总产值  农民纯收入

Key words:  HCW model  economic urbanization rate  total output value of agriculture,forestry, animal husbandry and fisher  net income of farmers

摘要:

目的 文章以若干“三块地”改革试点区域为研究对象，分析“三块地”改革对经济城镇化率、农林牧渔总产值和农民纯收入水平的影响，探究其政策效应以及对不同地区的影响机制，以此盘活农村闲置的土地资源，激发农村发展潜力，促进新型城镇化和城乡融合发展。方法 运用HCW模型，确定实验组和控制组，以2001—2017年为研究区，拟合得到实验组未实施政策的“反事实”值，分析其对农村社会发展的影响。结果 经济城镇化率方面，东部地区由于经济发展水平相对较高，政策效应不明显，而西部地区的政策效应较为明显；农林牧渔总产值方面，各区域的政策效果没有明显差异；农民纯收入水平方面，各区域农民收入的“反事实值”和实际值均没有明显差距。结论 由于东西部地区不同的发展阶段和模式，“三块地”改革对东部地区的影响体现在资源配置的优化；对西部地区的影响体现在农业生产方式和农村生活方式的改变。

Abstract:

This paper takes several pilot areas of the "three kinds of land" reformation as samples to analyze the impact of "three kinds of land" reform on the economic urbanization rate, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and the net income of farmers in different areas, so as to activate the idle land resources in rural areas, stimulate the development of rural areas, and promote the new-type urbanization. In this study, the HCW model was used to determine the experimental group and the experimental group, the "counterfactual" value of the experimental group and its impact on rural areas were explored by taking 2001—2017 as the research period. The results were indicated as follows. In terms of economic urbanization rate, the policy effect was not obvious in eastern areas because of its better economic basis, while the policy effect in western areas was relatively obvious. In terms of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the difference of policy effect between eastern areas and western areas was unobvious. In terms of the net income of farmers, there was no obvious gap between the counter actual value and the actual value of farmers' income both in the eastern and western regions.Therefore，due to the different development stages and modes in the eastern and western areas, the impact of the "three kinds of land" reform in eastern areas is reflected in the optimization of resource allocation, and the impact of the "three kinds of land" reform in western areas is reflected in the change of agricultural production mode and rural life style.