水足迹视阈下河北省农业用水驱动因素分析

STUDY ON DRIVING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER IN HEBEI PROVINCE BASED ON WATER FOOTPRINT

关键词:  农业用水  水足迹  驱动因素  LMDI模型  河北

Key words:  agricultural water  water footprint  driving factors  LMDI model  Hebei province

摘要:

目的 河北省地下水超采严重、水资源长期供需不平衡的背景下，探究河北省农业用水真实消耗情况及其驱动因素，对水资源安全、可持续利用具有重要意义。方法 文章基于作物需水量和作物实际用水量测度河北省农业生产蓝水足迹及绿水足迹，利用LMDI模型解析河北省农业用水变化的影响因素及驱动机理。结果 结果显示，2002—2018年河北省农业水足迹数量呈波动下降趋势，技术效应、种植规模效应和节水效应对河北省农业水足迹变化呈增量效应，其中技术效应对水足迹数量变化的正向驱动贡献值最大，这说明农业技术应用、规模效应带动和节水成效保障加快河北省农业节约用水进程；管理效应和种植结构效应对河北省农业水足迹数量变化呈减量效应，这说明水利化程度、农业种植结构给河北省农业节水带来一定程度的压力。结论 河北省水资源优化配置和高效利用，应重点强化农业节水技术、节水管理和结构调整。推广高效节水灌溉技术，推进水肥一体化建设；加大节水政策的宣传和培训力度，提高设施维护保持能力；优化各地区种植结构，持续推进“一季休耕，一季雨养”的种植模式，提升水资源和种植结构的匹配度，从而减轻河北省水资源短缺压力。

Abstract:

Under the background of serious groundwater overexploitation and the long-term imbalance between supply and demand of water resources, it is of great significance to explore the real consumption of agricultural water and its driving factors for the safe and sustainable utilization of water resource in Hebei province. Based on the crop water demand and the actual crop water consumption, the blue water footprint and green water footprint of agricultural production in Hebei province were measured. And the LMDI model was used to analyze the influencing factors and driving mechanism of agricultural water in Hebei province.The results showed that the number of agricultural water footprint in Hebei province fluctuated and decreased from 2002 to 2018. Technology effect, planting scale effect and water saving effect had incremental effects on the change of agricultural water footprint in Hebei province, and technology effect had the largest positive driving contribution to the change of water footprint, which indicated that the application of agricultural technology, scale effect and water saving guarantee had accelerated the process of agricultural water saving in Hebei province.The management effect and planting structure effect had decreased effects on the quantity change of agricultural water footprint in Hebei province, which showed that the degree of water conservancy and agricultural planting structure had brought some pressure on agricultural water saving in Hebei province. In order to optimize the allocation and utilization of water resources in Hebei province, we should focus on strengthening agricultural water saving technology, water-saving management and structural adjustment. We should promote high-efficiency water-saving irrigation technology and water-fertilizer integration construction, increase the publicity and training of water-saving policies and improve the ability to maintain facilities, optimize the planting structure in various regions, continuously promote the planting mode of "fallow in one season and rain in one season", and improve the matching degree between water resources and planting structure, so as to reduce the pressure of water shortage in Hebei province.