农村劳动力转移就业稳定性对土地流转的影响效应研究基于迁移异质性视角

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF STABILITY OF RURAL LABOR TRANSFER EMPLOYMENT ON LAND TRANSFERBASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OF MIGRATION HETEROGENEITY

关键词:  劳动力转移  转移就业  稳定性  土地流转  异质性

Key words:  labor migration  transfer employment  employment stability  land transfer  heterogeneity

摘要:

目的 基于2017年在广东、河南、湖北、山西、云南5省所做的农户调查数据， 从迁移异质性角度， 考察了劳动力转移就业稳定性对农户土地流转的影响差异。方法 文章使用IV-Probit和IV-Tobit模型， 解决劳动力转移就业行为内生性的问题， 实现模型参数结果的无偏估计。结果 在广延边际上， 劳动力季节性非稳定转移就业对农户转入、转出土地均没有显著影响， 而常年稳定转移就业仅对农户转出土地有显著正影响， 家庭每新增1个常年在外务工者， 会使农户土地转出倾向增加9.5%；在集约边际上， 虽然稳定和非稳定的转移就业方式都降低了农地需求， 但只有常年稳定转移就业显著促进了农地供给的增加， 家庭每新增1个常年在外务工者， 会使农户土地转出数量增加8.1%。结论 促进农村转移劳动力向城市的稳定迁移和就业， 尤其是让非稳定转移就业者实现在城市的长期、稳定就业， 是解决现阶段农村土地流转市场供给不足的有效出路。

Abstract:

Based on the survey data of farmers in Guangdong, Henan, Hubei, Shanxi and Yunnan provinces in 2017, this paper examines the differences in the impact of the stability of labor transfer and employment on farmers' land transfer from the perspective of migration heterogeneity. IV-Probit and IV-Tobit models were used to solve the problem of endogeneity of labor transfer employment behavior and realize unbiased estimation of model parameter results. The results showed that, on the broad margin, the seasonal unsteady transfer of labor force had no significant effect on farmers' land transfer and land transfer, while the permanent steady transfer of labor force only had a significant positive effect on farmers' land transfer. Each new permanent migrant worker in a family increased the tendency of farmers' land transfer by 9.5%. At the intensity margin, although both stable and unstable transfer employment modes reduced the demand for agricultural land, only permanent stable transfer employment significantly promoted the increase of agricultural land supply. For each new permanent migrant worker in a family, the amount of land transferred from rural households increased by 8.1%. Therefore, promoting the stability of rural labor transfer employment, especially promoting the unsteady migrant workers to find long-term and stable jobs in cities, could be an effective way to solve the shortage of supply in the rural land transfer market.